Brighton vs. Crystal Palace Odds
| Brighton Odds | +110 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +265 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Friday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Friday morning via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Two unlikely rivals Brighton & Hove Albion and Crystal Palace meet Friday for another iteration of the M23 derby in Premier League action.
Crystal Palace and Brighton are separated by 37 miles. For the longest time in the lower league of English football they were the closest teams to each other, so they became rivals with the M23 signifying the roadway between Sussex and London.
😱 What a finish! Neal Maupay equalizes for Brighton in the 95th minute to stun Crystal Palace. Incredible drama. #CPFC#BHAFC#CRYBHApic.twitter.com/uCW9p7Q8Op
— Joe Prince-Wright (@JPW_NBCSports) September 27, 2021
The first meeting between these teams was maybe one of the most heated matches of the season in the English top flight. Neal Maupay scored a 95th-minute stoppage time goal and all Hell broke loose at Selhurst Park.
Brighton Lucky to Get Point in First Meeting
If we go back to the first match, Crystal Palace dominated most of it. The Eagles won on expected goals by a 1.4-0.6 margin. The Seagulls only had eight shot-creating actions and 21 touches in their foe's penalty area. However, Maupay's strike earned Brighton a point.
The biggest thing in a matchup likes this is scoring first. Brighton and Crystal Palace are creating and allowing less than one exG per 90 minutes from an even game state this season.
Brighton’s pressing has been incredible this season, but they’re currently without Yves Bissuoma and Enock Mwepu, which is very important for their pressing. That element is vital facing a Crystal Palace team that's 15th in Offensive PPDA.
Brighton is still one of the best defensive units in the league, allowing only 1.12 xG per 90 minutes and have conceded only 13 big scoring chances, which is second behind only Manchester City. That's huge against a Crystal Palace offense that has been below average and will be without Wilfried Zaha.
Defense Leading Way for Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace is an incredible defensive unit and have been much improved this season under manager Patrick Vieira. The Eagles are conceding only 1.16 xG per match and the reason for that is because they've allowed the third-fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League. That's huge going up against a Brighton offense that's 15th in big scoring chances created.
Now, Crystal Palace's offense has been falling behind and is the reason why they aren't in the top half of the table. They're only averaging 1.25 xG per match, and find themselves in bottom half of the EPL in shots per 90 minutes and box entries.
Crystal Palace’s numbers at Selhurst Park are so much better than on the road. The Eagles have a +7.8 xGDiff at home versus a -6.1 xGDiff away from Selhurst Park. So, this isn't the best of spots for the Eagles.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Based on my projections I have Brighton's moneyline at +121 odds and the total set at 2.15 goals. So, I'm not finding too much pre-match value. However, I do think there's an opportunity to get on Crystal Palace in the live markets.
In the first half this season, Crystal Palace has a -2.4 xGDiff in the first half versus a +7.3 xGDiff in the second half. On the other side, Brighton only has +0.26 xG in the second half.
So, I will wait to see if Brighton goes ahead. If they do, I will probably end up playing Crystal Palace live, considering they have a +.025 xGDiff per 90 minutes when trailing this season.
Pick: Live Play — Crystal Palace in Second Half
