Saturday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Crystal Palace vs. West Ham United Betting Preview

Crystal Palace vs. West Ham Odds

West Ham United looks to keep pace for the race for the fourth place and final Champions League spot when they head to Selhurst Park on New Year's Day to take on Crystal Palace.

After a bad performance against Tottenham last weekend, Crystal Palace took care of business against last place Norwich City despite being short-handed for the match. The Eagles have improved greatly under manager Patrick Vieira, who has turned them into one of the Premier League's best defensive units.

West Ham got back on track in its Tuesday fixture, pouring in four goals against Watford on the road en route to a 4-1 victory. The Hammers have been decimated by injuries on their back line, which has taken a toll on their pursuit of the top four. A win at Selhurst Park would do wonders for Hammers before they're able to get some reinforcements in the January transfer window.

Zaha Returning to Crystal Palace Lineup

Crystal Palace was a little thin against Norwich City, playing without Wilfried Zaha, Conor Gallagher or Joachim Anderson. Zaha will be back from suspension and Gallagher could return, as all of the reports indicate his absence wasn't COVID-19 related. Instead, he was simply rested.

If Gallagher is back, I don’t understand why Crystal Palace is this significant of a home underdog. The Eagles' offense hasn’t been great overall, ranking 13th NPxG thus far. However, in their past nine matches, excluding the game against Tottenham this past weekend when they were down a man for 60 minutes, Palace is averaging 1.43 xG per contest.

Crystal Palace’s home numbers are so much better than on the road. The Eagles have a +7.9 xGDiff at home versus a -5.9 xGDiff on the road. Palace is also a fortress at home, allowing only 7.5 expected goals in 10 games, per fbref.com. So, this is a great spot for the Eagles to grab all three points as underdogs. 

West Ham Finds Success Despite Absences

Offensively, West Ham looked great against Watford when it poured in four goals and created 2.9 xG in the win. Yet, that output came against the EPL's worst defense. Crystal Palace is a much better, more organized defensive outfit that's top five in NPxG allowed and big scoring chances conceded.

West Ham is still decimated by injuries on their back line, as Angel Ogbonna, Kurt Zouma and Aaron Cresswell remain out for this match. The difference in West Ham defensively before the Ogbonna injury and after is night and day. Prior to his absence, the Hammers allowed only 1.06 xG per match. Following the injury against Liverpool, they’re allowing 1.44 xG per contest.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I have this much projected closer to Pick'em, so I love Crystal Palace at +125 on the Draw No Bet line via DraftKings and would play it down to +115 odds.

Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (+125)