Leeds vs. Burnley Odds
| Leeds Odds | +100 |
| Burnley Odds | +265 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Leeds United and Burnley enter Sunday's Premier League contest at Elland Road in desperate need of points with the relegation battle in the picture for both clubs.
Leeds are five points clear of the drop zone right now, but three consecutive league defeats, a concerning trend line of performances and an injury crisis have them in a bit of a perilous position.
Burnley are in the relegation zone right now with just 11 points, following Thursday's 3-1 defeat to Manchester United at Old Trafford. The squad has recently been hit by COVID-19 as well and will be without a few notable players on Sunday.
Leeds had their Boxing Day game with Liverpool and subsequent matchup with Aston Villa canceled due to a lack of fit players with COVID-19 and injuries hitting the squad. Only a couple of those main guys will be back for this game, though, and the status of striker Patrick Bamford remains in doubt.
Handicapping this game given the uncertainty of the team news is an added challenge.
Roster Remains Fluid for Leeds
The injury list for Leeds is long: Liam Cooper, Charlie Cresswell, Kalvin Phillips, Rodrigo and Pascal Struijk are all out for this match, and there are others questionable to make their return.
Jack Harrison is expected in the midfield and Diego Llorente should be back from COVID-19 in the backline to help improve the squad generally, but the Stuart Dallas and Adam Forshaw midfield has been incredibly vulnerable.
Bamford said he was "touch-and-go" for the Peacocks on Sunday, and to me that indicates that even if the striker does play, he's unlikely to feature for the entire 90 minutes and may be limited to 45-60 minutes as a starter or a second-half cameo as a substitute.
Leeds have allowed 15.6 xGA in their last seven league matches. They have played Chelsea, City and Arsenal and conceded a lot of penalties in that time frame, though that makes the numbers considerably worse than Leeds actually are.
One area where the Leeds attack has done well has been on set pieces. Despite ranking just 18th in big scoring chances and 14th in non-penalty expected goals created, the Peacocks rank fifth in chances created off of set pieces.
They're also ninth best at getting the ball into the penalty area against a Burnley defense that is 20th, so I'd expect to see Leeds move the ball up the field pretty easily.
Burnley Hoping to Rebound Off Loss
The Clarets had an alarming performance at Old Trafford on Thursday when you consider how much United had struggled in recent games to create chances. The Red Devils produced two expected goals and scored three on the Clarets in that game, and they took their foot off the gas a bit in the second half when playing with a two-goal lead.
While Leeds have been hit mostly by injuries, Burnley have COVID-19 issues. Kevin Long, Josh Brownhill, Jay Rodriguez and Nick Pope all missed Thursday's match and are likely out again on Sunday. That's a significant loss in numbers for a thin Burnley team to begin with.
Like Leeds, Burnley also rank in the top six in chances created from set pieces and have the highest percentage of overall chances created from dead ball situations. The Clarets can take advantage of a bad Leeds set piece defense and create a few high-quality chances for Chris Wood, James Tarkowski and Ben Mee.
Forward Maxwell Cornet is also potentially back to boost the Burnley attack in this game.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Both Burnley and Leeds have underperformed their expected goals numbers in attack this season and should have more goals than they actually do, based on the chances created. The Clarets have scored just 15 goals from 18 xGF this year, while the Peacocks have produced just 18 goals from 22 xG.
Some regression is coming for both attacks, and I have major question marks about Leeds' ability to defend anyone given the injury situation. If the pressing and set piece defending is just a little off, Burnley will exploit them in this match.
This might not quite be a relegation six-pointer because of Leeds' position five points clear of the drop, but it will certainly put them in peril if they lose this game.
The first meeting between these two sides ended 1-1 but was relatively end-to-end, featured four big scoring chances and more than three expected goals created.
My numbers have 2.62 goals projected for this game, but it's admittedly difficult to project Leeds at the moment given the issues with injuries. However, the Burnley defense is not the usual Burnley defense that overperforms with great goalie play or lots of blocked shots, either.
Wayne Hennessey is a clear down grade from Pope in goal, and I think this game will be more open than most expect it to be, so I'll take the total going over 2.5 goals at -115 or better.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-115 or better)
