Liverpool vs. Newcastle Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -900 |
| Newcastle Odds | +2000 |
| Draw | +950 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Liverpool welcomes lowly Newcastle United to St. James' Park for what should be one of the more lopsided games on the Premier League schedule.
The Reds enter the match second in the EPL table on the back of seven consecutive victories across all competitions. Meanwhile, the Magpies find themselves in the relegation zone, tied with Norwich City at the bottom of the standings with 10 points.
Looking at the history of this fixture, Newcastle is winless in its last 25 visits to Anfield and I don’t see that streak ending this week.
Powerful Liverpool Still in Manchester City's Shadow
If it weren’t for Manchester City, this dominant Liverpool run would be the talk of the league, but it will need to continue to catch the league front runner.
Manager Jürgen Klopp’s team has been excellent, leading the English top flight in non-penalty expected goals (40.5), shots per match (19.13) and big scoring chances created (47), according to fbref.com.
Over the last five league fixtures, the Reds have produced 14 goals on 17 big scoring chances and 2.78 xG per 90 minutes.
Egyptian attacker Mohamed Salah is putting together one of his best seasons on Mersyside, leading the league with 14 goals and nine assists. Liverpool is also doing this all without injured striker Roberto Firmino, which should scare any upcoming opponents on the schedule.
Schedule Unkind to Newcastle Going Forward
Newcastle was one of a handful of teams in England that recently decided to change managers, with Eddie Howe taking over at the beginning of November.
The Magpies have been decent in his five games, with a win over Burnley and draws against Norwich City and Brentford. They also have losses against Arsenal and Leicester City. Over that same span, Newcastle’s advanced metrics have not looked good, posting a -2.6 expected goals difference on 0.96 xG/match.
Howe’s team desperately needed a better performance over the weekend as its next three matches include Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United.
Betting Analysis & Pick
As you would expect, BetMGM has Liverpool listed as the big favorite at -800 on the moneyline. The total for this match is set at 3.5 goals. In my opinion, the number is too big to take the Reds straight up or on a spread line, but there's still value in the props market.
That said, I'm making my best bet for this game Liverpool to Win to Nil — Yes at -125 odds.
It’s very easy to get distracted by the offensive numbers. However, we’re starting to see the return of the dominant defense from a few years ago. Klopp’s side ranks in the top three in goals allowed (12), non-penalty xG allowed (14.7) and opponents’ big scoring chances created (13) this season.
Liverpool has kept a clean sheet in four of its last six in league action and in five of eight at Anfield this season. The same bet would have also cashed in games against similar competition in Norwich, Burnley, Leeds United, Aston Villa and Watford.
As for the visitors, Newcastle ranks toward the bottom of the league in multiple attacking metrics, including non-penalty xG (14.3) and big scoring chances created (11) this season. And those numbers also haven’t improved much under the new manager.
I’m never going to get behind a team on this big of a moneyline price or spread line, but I think this is an excellent bet to make to back Liverpool.
Pick: Liverpool Win to Nil — Yes (-125)
