Sunday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Manchester City vs. Everton Betting Preview

Man City vs. Everton Odds

Manchester City looks to keep pace in the Premier League title race when they host Everton on Sunday at Etihad Stadium.

Before the international break, Manchester City throughly dominated arch-rival Manchester United in a 2-0 shutout win at Old Trafford. The Cityzens are currently sitting six points behind Chelsea in the table, but find themselves in a look-ahead spot with Paris Saint-Germain on deck in Wednesday’s Champions League action.

Everton has been on a roller coaster this season, but still still sits in 11th place in the table despite dealing with a ton of injuries. They will be short-handed again, so we'll see if the Toffees can actually hang with one of the England’s best teams.

Man City Continues Dominant EPL Ways 

There aren’t a lot of negatives I can say about Manchester City right now. The Cityzens are second behind Liverpool in every single offensive metric. They’re also first in every single defensive metric. I mean they’ve only allowed 6.93 NPxG in 11 matches, so they’re still near the elite level we saw last season.

Manchester City has more talent and depth than anyone, but that will be tested because two of their best attacking players — Kevin de Bryune and Jack Grealish — are out and Phil Foden is questionable.

Now, Manchester City has plenty of attacking players to slot in, but they're starting to get a little thin with potentially those three sidelined. Plus, Ferran Torres is out for an extended period of time.

Manchester City is going to dominate possession and spend most of their time in Everton's half of the field, given the fact the visiting side plays out of a 4-4-2 formation and down one of their best center backs. So, we'll see if City can convert their chances, which hasn't been their strong suit so far, as they have the fifth worst post-shot xG plus/minus in the English top flight.

Injuries Haven’t Kept Everton Down

Despite dealing with a lot of injuries, Everton haven’t been that bad this season. They’re offense, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, is still averaging 1.40 xG per match and they’re eighth in shots per 90 minutes, second in crosses completed into the 18 yard box, and eighth in box entries, per fbref.com. 

Now, Everton has been bad defensively, specifically allowing big scoring chances. The Toffees have conceded 117 through 11 matches, which is bottom three in the Premier League. And Yerry Mina being out again isn’twhat Everton fans want to see. That means it will likely be Ben Godfrey playing alongside Michael Keane in the 4-4-2 formation.

Now, while Everton's defense is allowing a lot of big scoring chances, they're still 10th in both NPxGA and shots conceded per 90 minutes. Everton also has been pretty effective with their press, ranking fifth in pressure success rate and seventh in ball recoveries. So, this defense with a good goalkeeper in Jordan Pickford is capable of hanging around in this match.

Betting Analysis & Pick

With De Bruyne and Grealish out, that takes away the creative supplying midfielder role for Manchester City, which is big when you're facing a team that's going to play two low blocks like Everton.

I only have 2.66 goals projected for this match, so I think there's value on the total under 3 goals at +105 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (+105)