Watford vs. Spurs Odds
| Watford Odds | +450 |
| Spurs Odds | -170 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Goals should be on tap when Watford hosts Tottenham on New Year's Day, with both teams looking to improve following recent managerial changes.
The Hornets saw a new-manager bounce when veteran Claudio Ranieri was hired, but they've since dipped in form to 17th in the league table.
As for Spurs, they also made a managerial change to Antonio Conte , which has led to an unbeaten run of eight EPL matches entering this fixture.
Looking at the history between these sides, Watford has only one win in the last 17 meetings against Spurs in league play. That said, I'm struggling to see how the Hornets buck the trend in Saturday's showdown at Vicarage Road.
Solid Start Under Ranieri Turns for Watford
When Ranieri became manager, he guided Watford to a pair of wins in his first five matches. However, the Hornets followed that up by losing the next five affairs by a combined goal difference of -9 in the process.
The primary issue is fixing a very leaky defense that ranks last in the EPL in expected-goals allowed per match (two), according to fbref.com. Watford is also the only team in the English top flight that has yet to secure a clean sheet this season, giving up 35 goals through 17 games.
To make matters worse, the Hornets have a lengthy injury list at the moment, which includes star attacker Ismaila Sarr.
Conte Bringing New Life to Spurs
While Watford has started to struggle under its new manager, Conte has his side firing on all cylinders, avoiding defeat in league matches through his eight games in charge.
The big change has been how Tottenham has improved on offense. Before Conte’s arrival, Spurs averaged 1.02 xG per match and held a -2.8 xG difference. In his eight games as manager, Tottenham has averaged 2.17 xG per contest and posted a +9.6 xG difference over that same span.
A key component to the offensive improvements has been the uptick in form from Harry Kane, who has scored in three of the last four league games.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Looking at the odds for this match at DraftKings, it’s no surprise to see Spurs as the -165 favorite on the moneyline. The total is set at 2.5 goals.
The numbers are a bit big to back the visitors, but I do see value in the Single Game Parlay markets. That said, my best bet is to play the parlay of a Tottenham win and the total over 1.5 goals at -105, which I would play all the way to -125 odds.
The last seven Spurs matches in the EPL have gone over the total of 1.5 goals. Meanwhile, 13 of 17 (76%) Watford league affairs have finished with at least two goals.
As for the Tottenham ML side of the parlay, Conte’s team has posted a +8.4 xG difference over its last five league tilts, which is much better than the -5.7 mark held over the same span by the Hornets.
Watford has also failed to get a positive result in comparable opposition this season in Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and West Ham United.
If you want a better price, I don’t think the same parlay with over 2.5 goals at +145 odds is a bad bet either as this game screams "goals."
We’re about to reach the point where the market has caught up with just how well Spurs have been playing under Conte, but this SGP still gives us great value to play on them.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Spurs ML & Total Over 1.5 Goals (-105)
