Wolves vs. West Ham Odds, Pick, Prediction: Total Has Value in Saturday EPL Match

Wolves vs. West Ham Odds

West Ham United look to continue their hot run of form and stay inside the top four in the Premier League table Saturday when they travel to Molineux Stadium to take on Wolves.

Wolverhampton had a stunningly bad performance on the road before the international break, suffering a 2-0 loss against Crystal Palace and getting throughly dominated in the process. Wolves is now sitting in eighth place, putting them only four points behind fifth-place Arsenal. That said, three points in this match could vault them into sixth place in the standings.

In contrast, the Hammers are on fire right now. West Ham has won four consecutive matches in the English top flight, taking down Tottenham, Liverpool and Everton along the way. The good run of form and win over Liverpool before the international break has West Ham in third place. However, the Hammers need to keep that form in this fixture, as they're facing a well-disciplined Wolves side.

Wolves Hoping to Rebound From Stunning Loss

Probably the most shocking result of the last round of matches was Wolves getting thoroughly outplayed by Crystal Palace.

Wolverhampton does have fantastic defensive numbers in the English top flight, including: fourth in NPxG allowed; fifth in shots per 90 allowed; and, third in big scoring chances allowed. However, in their 11 matches, they’ve only faced three offenses inside the top 10 in xG and none were inside the top five, which is where West Ham is currently located.

Wolves offensively haven't really put up eye popping numbers, ranking 10th in NPxG, but they're still averaging 1.39 xG per match, which is a big improvement from last season under former manager Nuno Espírito Santo when Wolves averaged only 1.02 xG per outing.

Antonio, West Ham Firing on All Cylinders

With Michail Antonio up top, West Ham is averaging 1.83 xG per match, plus they rank third in shots per 90 minutes and fifth in big scoring chances. However, Wolves has the best pressure success rate in the league and West Ham is fourth in Offensive PPDA, so they will be able to pass through the press and find a lot of open areas going forward.

Defensively, West Ham does have a concern in this matchup. The Hammers are eighth in big scoring chances allowed, while Wolves is third in that same category on the offensive side. Also, West Ham is 17th in crosses completed into their own penalty area, per fbref.com.

So, Rayan Aït-Nouri and Nélson Semedo getting forward could be able to find Raúl Jiménez in the box for a few chances because West Ham is pretty average in aerial duals won, per fbref.com.

Also, Declan Rice is questionable, which would be detrimental for West Ham trying to stop Wolves in transition.

Betting Analysis & Pick

With how good these two offenses have been at creating big scoring chances and given the questions regarding the level of talent Wolves' defense has faced, along with the question marks surrounding West Ham preventing big scoring chances, I think this is going to be a high-scoring confrontation.

I have 2.73 goals projected for this match, so I think there's value on the total going over 2.5 goals at +105 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)

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