Premier League Odds & Picks | Best Bets, Featuring Liverpool vs Everton

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Cunningham: The question in this match is what is Sean Dyche going to do? What we’ve seen from Everton this season is they want to continue to come out and disrupt build up play, force high turnovers, and create quick transitional opportunities. They did this with great success in their last match against Bournemouth, but are they going to try and press Liverpool high?

We’ve seen one match so far where Everton has played top tier competition, it was against Arsenal and it turned out to be a very boring match. In that match, they allowed Arsenal to have a 90.3% build up completion percentage, had an 18.3 PPDA, and only forced five high turnovers. So, I question if Dyche is going to go back to his old ways and sit in a 4-5-1 out of possession and look to hit Liverpool on the counter.

However, Liverpool plays a much different style than Arsenal. They don’t want slow build up possession, although they are good at breaking down low blocks, they want to primarily play in transition, which is where they are at their best. So, I think what you’ll see is not necessarily Everton pressing high, but setting a lot of traps in a midblock to try turnovers in their own end of the pitch and get transitional opportunities that way, which can work against Liverpool.

Liverpool has been cooking offensively and has the ability to destroy Everton here. The Reds are the only team in the Premier League to create a big scoring chance in every match they’ve played this season, while Everton have been good defensively, but haven’t really faced any of the top tier offenses outside of Arsenal and they’re still conceding 1.3 xG per 90 minutes.

Curtis Jones is still suspended for this match, which means Liverpool will have to be more compact in the middle of the pitch trying to limit central transition opportunities, which also means Everton gets to do what they do best, create chances via crosses. The Toffees have attempted 177 crosses this season, which is the second most in the Premier League. Liverpool is allowing the 11th most crosses into their penalty area, so Everton can without a doubt create chances that way. Also as is a staple with Sean Dyche teams Everton has been very good on set pieces this year, scoring five goals and creating 4.33 expected goals off of them, while Liverpool is 13th in xG per set piece allowed.

I have BTTS projected at -201, so I love the value on the current line of -150.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-150 via bet365) 

Cunningham Here we are again, Luton Town, they’re bad, but they’re not as bad as the market is perceiving them. Through eight matches, Luton Town has a -5.2 expected goal differential, which is actually not the worst in the Premier League, it’s fourth worst. They have played five matches against non-elite teams (West Ham, Fulham, Wolves, Burnley, and Everton) they have a +0.2 xGD in those five matches.

Yes, they looked awful against Tottenham right before the international break, but this is a much different opponent they will be facing. Nottingham Forest is a team that is primarily only good in transition, they don’t try to build out of the back, and will play most of their goal kicks long. So, this match will likely be decided on who wins those duals in the middle of the pitch.

Nottingham Forest though hasn’t been good by any stretch of the imagination offensively. They’re only averaging 0.97 xG per 90 minutes (18th in EPL), 10.50 shots per 90 minutes (19th in EPL), and 10.4 box entries per 90 minutes (18th in EPL). All of that has been with Taiwo Awoniyi playing in seven of their eight matches. He is going to miss this match, which is a huge blow to Forest because since the start of last season he’s been a 0.43 xG per minute striker and his replacement is Chris Wood, who is a downgrade.

The one thing we know for sure about Luton Town right now is they want to get the ball out wide and create chances via crosses. The Hatters have completed the crosses into the penalty area of anyone in the Premier League. Nottingham Forest will be without Serge Aurier for this match, which is a pretty big blow considering he’s played primarily in the right wingbacks spot for about a year now and is good defender in those wide areas when he drops for their back five out of possession. That will allow Alfie Doughty who has created 20 chances this season, which is the fourth highest in the Premier League.

This is the highest price Nottingham Forest has ever been on the moneyline in the Premier League and quite frankly, I think it’s a pretty crazy price, so I like Luton Town +1 at -141 at BetRivers

Pick:Luton Town +1 (-141 via BetRivers) 

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For all of the talk of Chelsea’s struggles, the Blues have been an elite defensive pressing side under Mauricio Pochettino this year. Chelsea has conceded the fewest final third entries in the league, the third fewest non-penalty xG and the lowest build-up completion rate allowed. The Blues should be able to disrupt Arsenal’s build-up structure with its press and force the game to be more transitional than Arteta wants it to be.

The tactical battle is Chelsea’s attempt to speed the game up against the control obsessed Arteta. This match won’t be as conservative as Manchester City vs. Arsenal two weeks ago, but the Blues attacking numbers are still quite mediocre. Chelsea is 11th in shots per 90, 11th in big scoring chances and seventh in NPxG per 90 despite playing just one team in the top half of the league by xGA.

With Arsenal’s attacking output taking a clear step back this season, Saka’s lack of fitness and Chelsea’s defensive improvements, it’s hard to see this game with a lot of goals. I’d bet the under 2.5 goals at -120 or better.

Pick:Under 2.5 (-108 via BetRivers)

Dabbundo: Fulham benched Raul Jimenez at striker in favor of the younger Carlos Vinicius, but that was not the reason the attack exploded for three goals and 2.2 expected goals in the home win against Sheffield United before the international break. The Cottagers got a vintage five shot, 0.8 xG performance from Willian and 0.6 xG and four more shots from Bobby Reid. Both wingers are over 30 and their best days are behind them, and I remain quite skeptical of how this Fulham side will continue to produce high quality chances going forward given the quality of the front three attackers.

The Cottagers midfield with Alex Iwobi, Andreas Pereira and Joao Palhinha remains quite functional from a ball winning, pressing and ball progression perspective. That’s a major reason why Fulham is in the top half of the league in box entries, final third entries and build-up completion rate allowed. Marco Silva’s side isn’t going to let Spurs walk into their penalty area and expose their mediocre back line.

Fulham has produced the fourth fewest xG through eight matches, with only Sheffield, Burnley and Nottingham Forest below them. Tottenham’s attack has benefitted from some late heroics and positive game states against Sheffield United and Liverpool. Even while the attack is now first in expected threat and third in non-penalty xG per 90, I think this is a good sell high spot on the unit as a whole. They’ve played a very friendly schedule of opposing defenses to this point and while Fulham’s defense is quite mediocre, it has inflated Spurs true talent numbers.

I’d bet under 3 goals at -105 or better

Pick: Under 3 (+108 via bet365)