Newcastle vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -223 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112/-112 |
Newcastle look to get back on track after a late draw with West Ham before the international break when they host Crystal Palace at St. James Park.
The Magpies have played the most difficult schedule to begin the Premier League season and are still sitting in sixth place within striking distance of the top four. Eddie Howe's men have been dominating teams in the bottom half of the table for over a year now and matches like these are crucial to get all three points to stay in the race for the top four.
Crystal Palace are having one of the most boring seasons in recent memory. There has been a total one goal in their past three Premier League matches, but they did keep a clean sheet in all three. Compact defense is a staple of Roy Hodgson and he will need his defense to play at a high level if they're going to keep Newcastle at bay.
Newcastle
From a Newcastle perspective, they are No. 1 in non-penalty expected goals created, but this is a situation where they are going to be the ones controlling a lot of possession, trying to breakdown a low block. Sure, they've trashed teams like Sheffield United and West Ham, who play low blocks but aren't really that effective in doing so. A good comparison for this match is the one that Newcastle played against Brentford, where they were only able to create 0.7 xG from open play and only took eight shots for the entire match.
Even against West Ham in their last match, before the Isak goal in the 57th minute the Magpies had created 0.34 xG on four shots. Plus, Isak is questionable for this match, and he was basically the only reason Newcastle created chances against West Ham. If he’s out that means Callum Wilson is going to be playing up top and he’s a great forward playing off the opponent's back line and in transitional opportunities, but maybe isn’t the best forward to effectively breakdown a low block.
Plus, there could be some squad rotation from the Magpies as they have a huge Champions League match against Dortmund on Wednesday.
Crystal Palace
This is another match where I question Crystal Palace’s ability to score. They did next to nothing without Eze and Eduoard against Nottingham Forest. They took two shots for the first hour of the match and created 0.8 xG in its entirety, but they continue to be a rock solid defensive team only allowing 1.13 npxG per 90 minutes and also rank fourth in big scoring chances allowed.
Their back four of Ward, Guehi, Anderson and Mitchell has been playing regularly together for the better part of two years now and has formed one of the best defensive partnerships in Premier League. Additionally, having Cheick Doucouré protecting the back line as one of the best ball stopping midfielders in the world makes it very difficult to break Crystal Palace down and it's why they're top five in expected goals allowed.
Odsonne Édouard is going to return to the Palace, but without Eze I am not sure Crystal Palace have the creative aspect to threaten Newcastle’s defense. It is only allowing 1.02 npxG despite playing the hardest schedule through eight matches. Eze is everything to the Crystal Palace attack. He leads the Eagles in shots, passes into the penalty area, expected assists and shot creating actions. Palace doesn't really have a replacement for him and you saw just how much they struggled to create chances against Nottingham Forest without him right before the international break.
Crystal Palace has scored just one goal and failed to create over 1 xG in their last three matches, so unless they get a fluke transition goal or score off of a set piece, I have a hard time seeing how they score against Newcastle.
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Pick & Prediction
If Crystal Palace are able to keep the pace of this match slow and force and a lot of ball circulation from Newcastle, I think they will be effective enough in keeping them out of goal, especially if Isak doesn’t play. The Eagles aren't going to come out and press the Magpies, which is where Newcastle typically thrive. Newcastle are a team that plays at its best when the match is primarily transitional, but Crystal Palace, although they primarily a low block/transitional team, don't leave themselves exposed typically when they lose the ball.
However, on the flip side without Eze, who leads Palace in just about every offensive category, I am not sure how they threaten Newcastle’s goal. Not being able to create over 1 xG against Fulham, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest is a bit concerning considering Newcastle are a far better defense than those three clubs.
I have BTTS – no projected at -155, so I like the value on the current line of -115.
