Arsenal vs. Brighton Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -165 |
| Brighton Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -130) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Arsenal squandered a crucial opportunity to hold grip on the fourth and final Champions League position in Premier League action Monday, but has a chance to leap back into that spot Saturday when it faces Brighton & Hove Albion at Emirates Stadium.
The Seagulls come into this match with little to play for since its mid-table position is secure in the league, but this is the EPL and a result will be desired nonetheless.
So, how will this important fixture play out ahead of a busy weekend in the English top flight? Let's take a look to see where we can find betting value.
Arsenal Entering Crucial Period of Fixtures
With nine games to play, Arsenal has a chance to define the course of its season and the campaign that follows. Finishing fourth in the EPL and the UCL position that it would entail could allow the Reds greater funds, an ability to sign better players and a spot in the most prestigious competition in the sport.
Prior to Monday's fixture against Crystal Palace, Arsenal looked like a club that was intent on making that happen with six wins in its seven prior Premier League games. The loss to Palace isn't one that defines Arsenal's form, per se, but slip-ups like that could be crucial in dropping out of a UCL position.
As it stands, the Gunners are in fifth place, sitting only behind Tottenham on goal differential. However, Spurs do have a game in hand. Arsenal has two games in hand on sixth-place West Ham United and one on seventh-place Manchester United, plus it's ahead of each team by three points.
Arsenal has games against each of those teams, and while those fixtures will be incredibly vital, securing results in matches like these are nearly just as important. The Gunners have five home games remaining, so any outright loss in those fixtures would be a sizable setback.
Fading Brighton Tumbling Late in Season
Brighton's fate in this year's Premier League was determined weeks, if not months, ago and its performances have reflected that situation.
The Seagulls have lost six of their last seven EPL games, with their lone non-loss coming in their last fixture against last-place Norwich City.
That being said, some of Brighton's performances have been better than results show. Against Norwich and Newcastle United, the Seagulls maintained expected-goal edges. And in each of its last seven games, Brighton under-performed against the fixture's xG margin.
That's an encouraging sign for the rest of the season and the next, but it doesn't change the results. A big cause of under-performing against xG is poor finishing, which has has doomed Brighton of late. The Seagulls have the second-worst conversion rate in the league (4.8%), so they'll need to change that if positive results are going to come.
BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Trusting xG to indicate results over the long term is something I believe in and it leads me to make choices that might seem unconventional at times. In this instance, I have to do that again.
Backing Arsenal to secure a result at home against a side that has lost six of its last seven games might seem wise, but at -165 odds, the value really isn't there, nor is it playing the favorite to win by two or more goals. Instead, I'll look to back Brighton to get a draw or victory.
The Seagulls have a -0.08 xG margin/game away from home, while Arsenal's differential/game at the Emirates is 0.89 on the season. And even though the Gunners have been trending upward while Brighton has been the opposite, the visitor's results haven't actually reflected its performances to a large extent.
Although we saw the Arsenal regression Monday that was due, I still believe the value lies with the away side when evaluating prices. I would expect this game to finish within a goal a large portion of the time, so backing Brighton picking up +0.5 goals on the spread line at these odds will be my best bet.
Pick: Brighton +0.5 (+130)
