Man City vs. Liverpool Odds
| Man City Odds | +100 |
| Liverpool Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Well, it has come down to this moment.
Just a single point separates Premier League giants Manchester City and Liverpool ahead of Sunday's much-anticipated showdown at Etihad Stadium. The Cityzens held a solid lead in the table at the start of 2022, only to squander chances to distance themselves from manager Jürgen Klopp and the lurking Reds.
Now, City hope to stave off a Liverpool side that has won 10 EPL matches on the bounce, featuring five consecutive clean sheets. The hosts haven't been a slouch in any way, though, going unbeaten in a stunning 21 of 22 games across all competitions. However, a shocking 3-2 loss to Tottenham on Feb. 19 have made things a little too close for comfort for the reigning champions.
Man City and Liverpool meet this Sunday in a game that's lived up to the hype since Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola arrived.
It all started when Klopp got a 1-0 win over Pep at Anfield 💥
(via @LFC)pic.twitter.com/9Xxo4t3olG
— B/R Football (@brfootball) April 8, 2022
The last time these powerhouses met came all the way back on Oct. 3 when they played to an entertaining 2-2 draw at Anfield. Liverpool held one-goal leads on two occasions, thanks to goals from Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah, but squandered both via equalizing tallies by Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne.
Needless to say, the latest tussle between these global heavyweights could determine who winds up champion in the English top flight. There will be no shortage of drama and excitement, so let's see where we can find some betting value ahead of this clash.
Manchester City Taking Pitch Minus Dias
It's hard to find any sort of weakness with this Manchester City side. Top to bottom, the club is arguably the best in the world. The Cityzens are the Champions League betting favorites, sitting at +170 in the BetMGM futures market.
However, City enter this match minus arguably their most important player in center back Rúben Dias. The Portuguese international has been dealing with a nasty hamstring injury that will keep him sidelined, thus creating a massive hole in the back Guardiola will fill with John Stones and Aymeric Laporte.
❌ Ruben Dias
❌ Cole PalmerPep Guardiola confirms that the rest of the Manchester City squad are fit pic.twitter.com/yXmAZl6YLV
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) April 1, 2022
Offensively, Guardiola won't make any changes from a tactical standpoint and will maintain his standard 4-3-3 formation, led by De Bruyne and Rodri in the midfield. Up top, I don't know how he keeps Foden out of the starting XI with the success he's had against Liverpool. The English international has faced the Reds four times, recording three goals and two assists.
Bottom line, a loss to Liverpool would be potentially catastrophic in what has been a slow bleed of a lead since the start of the year. The Cityzens were 12 points clear of the Reds, but draws against Southampton (1-1 on Jan. 22) and Crystal Palace (0-0 on March) — and that loss to Spurs — have made things ultra-tight as we head toward the finish.
Liverpool, Salah Firing on All Cylinders
If the Reds are going to pull off the "upset" against the Cityzens, their Egyptian star will be the main force behind that result.
Salah is the engine that makes this electric Liverpool offense run so efficiently. He's amassed 30 goals and 14 assists across all competitions for the Reds, but has found himself in sort of a rut ahead of this affair. Salah hasn't scored a goal from open play since a Feb. 19 win against lowly Norwich City.
That's 10 matches without a goal coming via that route, but he has converted three penalties during that time frame.
🗣 “Every player would love to play this game.”
Mohamed Salah on facing Manchester City this weekend. pic.twitter.com/WpOm0RE764
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) April 8, 2022
Obviously, there's no need for anyone in the club's camp to worry. Big players show up on the biggest stages, which I think will be case when Salah takes the Etihad pitch. The Reds have won four league contests in a row away from Anfield as well, giving them even more confidence entering this battle.
The one, huge sigh of relief heard around the Liverpool dressing room and among the fans was the one after everyone learned Fabinho will be fit to start after enduring a minor head injury in a 3-1 midweek victory against Benfica in Champions League action.
Man City vs. Liverpool Stat Comparisons
*Information via fbref.com
| CITY | LIVERPOOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W-L-D) | 23-3-4 | 22-2-6 |
| Total Points | 73 | 72 |
| Goals For | Goals Against | 70 | 18 | 77 | 20 |
| xG | 68.8 | 74.0 |
| xGA | 21.3 | 28.1 |
| xGDiff | +47.4 | +45.9 |
| xGDiff/90 Minutes | +1.58 | +1.53 |
Betting Analysis & Pick
it's virtually impossible to back a side after mixing in the trends, personnel, advanced metrics and everything else that goes into handicapping matches at this elite level. City and Liverpool could play 10 consecutive games and would probably split the results down the middle.
What makes it even more difficult is the head-to-head managerial record between Guardiola (Bayern Munich/Manchester City) and Klopp (Borussia Dortmund/Liverpool) in their storied careers. The gaffers have met on 22 occasions, with each leading their sides to nine wins. The other four matches were draws.
So, with everything essentially a wash, I believe this comes down two things: the personnel angle and what lies ahead. The Reds enter this meeting fit, with no player carrying a knock that will keep him sidelined. They also don't have much to worry about in the second leg of Wednesday's UCL quarterfinal tie with Benfica, having earned an easy win in the opener.
We are seeing unprecedented levels of performance from Man City & Liverpool under Pep Guardiola & Jurgen Klopp.
In eight seasons of data collection, only nine teams have finished with an xGD/game of +1.0 or greater – all nine are City and Liverpool. pic.twitter.com/MqzliiFUZQ
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) April 8, 2022
As for Manchester City, it can't say the same. The loss of Dias is massive. He brings skill, stability and leadership in the defensive third of the pitch, so his absence creates a massive void facing a foe that has scored at least two goals in a stunning 17 out of their last 25 fixtures overall.
The Cityzens also have a trip to the Spanish capital next week, where they face La Liga stalwart Atlético Madrid in their reverse fixture. They dominated proceedings in this week's first leg, but were only able to secure a 1-0 win thanks to a second-half goal form De Bruyne. So, there's work to be done in that competition and maybe City could be caught slightly looking ahead.
That said, I'm finding a ton of value of Liverpool in the betting market via two wagers. I love the Reds getting +0.25 on the spread line via the Asian Handicap at +110, as well as the Draw No Bet wager that's currently sitting at +150 odds.
Liverpool are the slightly better side at the moment, so it wouldn't surprise me if Klopp's group sprung the upset.
Picks: Liverpool +0.25 (+110) | Liverpool — Draw No Bet (+150)
