Man United vs. Leicester Odds
| Man United Odds | -200 |
| Leicester Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+130 / -185) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In the headliner of the Premier League slate, Manchester United hosts Leicester City at Old Trafford on Saturday in a match vital to the race for European qualification for next season.
The Red Devils enter the game in sixth place, trailing fourth-place Arsenal by four points. The Gunners take on Crystal Palace on Monday at Selhurst Park.
Meanwhile, the Foxes have drifted into a mid-table position and have their sights set on winning the Europa Conference League, which would earn them a spot in the Europa League next campaign.
If you look at the recent history of this fixture, Leicester has won three consecutive meetings with United across all competitions, but I think this is a great time to back the home side in a revenge spot.
Man United Dominating Since Rangnick's Arrival
Since Ralf Ragnick was hired as manager in November, he has made this United team difficult to beat, only losing three games out of 20 overall.
Considering two of the three contests came against Manchester City and Atlético Madrid in the Champions League, Ragnick has done a great job of steadying the ship after a disappointing start to the campaign.
The big improvements have come in attack, where the Red Devils have averaged 1.9 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com, and scored 13 goals over their last seven league games.
This is the same team that ranks in the top five in the EPL in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes (1.47), shots per game (14.07) and big scoring chances created (17) on the season.
Injuries, Shoddy Defending Haunting Leicester
Manager Brendan Rodgers had high hopes this season after winning the FA Cup last campaign, but injuries and poor defending have derailed those plans.
Leicester is toward the bottom of the English top flight in multiple defensive categories, including xGA per match (1.71) and opponents’ shots per game (15.70) this season.
Meanwhile, the Foxes will be without leading scorer Jamie Vardy and key holding midfielder Wilfried Ndidi, who both miss out due to injury.
With the first leg of the Europa Conference League quarterfinal with PSV Eindhoven on Thursday, you have to wonder how much the club will really care about this fixture.
BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Looking at the odds at BetMGM, United is listed as the heavy -200 favorite on the moneyline to go along with a total of 3.5 goals.
I’m looking to back the home side in a victory, but found a better price to wager on the Red Devils. That said, my best bet is to play the Single Game Parlay of Manchester United on the moneyline paired with the total clearing 1.5 goals at -145 odds.
If you look at current form, Ragnick’s team owns a +5 xGDiff over its last seven matches. Meanwhile, the Foxes have posted a -3.5 xGDiff during the same stretch of games.
You also have to look at how Leicester has performed away from home, where the club has only picked up 12 points out of a possible 39 on the road on three wins and draws to go with seven defeats.
Rodgers’ team, which has a -5.5 xGDiff away from King Power Stadium, has only beaten Burnley, Brentford and Norwich City on the road this season.
As for the total, all 13 road games for Leicester have finished with at least multiple goals, while eight of United’s last 10 games in the EPL have ended with more than 1.5 goals scored.
If you’re looking for a better price, you could also pair a United victory with over 2.5 goals at even money as I do think we should see two struggling defenses in this spot.
United is on better form and desperately needs a result more than Leicester, which I think should help us get to the window with this top pick.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Manchester United ML & Total Over 1.5 Goals (-145)
