Spurs vs. Newcastle Odds
| Spurs Odds | -200 |
| Newcastle Odds | +525 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Tottenham returns from the international break to a heated Premier League battle for a top-four position, with its first match coming against Newcastle United on Sunday's schedule.
The Magpies have escaped serious relegation danger following their purchase by a Saudi sovereign fund at the end of 2021, but still remain in 15th in the English top flight.
Here's how I see the important game going and where I've found betting value.
Spurs Entering Defining Period of Season
It's crunch time for Tottenham if it wants to return to the Champions League next season.
After facing a season in the UEFA Conference League, Spurs fans are even hungrier than normal to see their club return to the highest stage of European play. As it stands, Tottenham is three points shy of Arsenal, who also has a game in hand in the fourth and final UCL position.
Tottenham is currently at +250 odds to qualify for the top four and the next batch of games, with no international break remaining on the season, will determine if the club achieves its goal.
Two wins were secured against Brighton & Hove Albion and West Ham United gave Tottenham a bit of positive momentum heading into the break, but securing three points from these types of games — against a weaker side at home — is a must for a squad looking to finish among the top-four clubs.
Manager Antonio Conte will have a mostly clean bill of health to operate with, though Japhet Tanganga and Ryan Sessegnon will miss out for this game.
Newcastle Comfortable, But Has Work to Do
The Magpies were in a dire position toward the midway point of the season, but a 6-2-2 record in the new year has allowed them to leapfrog in the league table up to 15th place. They're now nine points clear of the relegation zone.
Newcastle is a whopping +3300 to be relegated, but that doesn't mean the job is finished for the Magpies. Games against Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal remain on the schedule, so totaling points toward the end of the year won't be easy.
However, finding a result in a situation like this would all but assure Newcastle will remain in the Premier League for the season ahead.
BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
The stakes are greater for Tottenham in this fixture, but I believe the value resides with Newcastle.
On the season, the Magpies have a -0.22 away expected goal differential on average, while Spurs' home xGDiff/game sits at 0.22 overall. Even better, Newcastle hasn't lost a game by two goals in the league nor conceded a one-plus xGDiff in a match since its Dec. 17 loss to Man City.
Tottenham is a solid home side, but it's also prone to poor performances there. Just last month, Spurs lost two games on the bounce to Southampton and Wolves, largely deserving the result they got in both contests.
Getting a goal at near even money, I'll back the road side every time in this spot and make it my top selection.
Pick: Newcastle +1 (-105)
