Watford vs. Brentford Odds
| Watford Odds | +185 |
| Brentford Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CNBC | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Watford welcomes Brentford to Vicarage Road on Saturday for a pivotal Premier League match at the bottom of the table.
With only seven games remaining, time is running out on the Hornets' survival hopes. They enter the weekend in the relegation zone, sitting in 19th place and six points from safety.
Meanwhile, the Bees have won four out of their last five games to all but guarantee another season in the EPL next campaign.
However, Brentford is winless in its last seven league games at Watford, but this could be a great opportunity to buck this trend.
Watford Facing Tough Climb to Safety
If the Hornets are going to climb out of this hole, the time is now to start turning things around, especially with games against Manchester City and Chelsea remaining on the schedule.
One positive for manager Roy Hodgson is that the recent advanced metrics don’t paint as bad of a picture as it has been. Over the last five matches, Watford has posted a -0.9 xGDiff, according to fbref.com.
However, the actual goal difference during that same span has been -9 as the club has been outscored, 13-4, in the process.
Hodgson is also starting to see some improving attacking numbers, where the Hornets have averaged 1.14 expected goals over their last five matches in the league. Unfortunately, it still hasn't been enough.
Surging Brentford Turning Things Around
Brentford has really started to look like the side that started the season in flying form, picking up impressive wins against Chelsea and West Ham United in the last two games.
The big question is whether the Bees can produce again away from home. On the road, the London club owns a -7.3 xGDiff and has only picked up 16 out of the maximum 48 points.
However, manager Thomas Frank will enter this fixture with confidence because of the fine form star striker Ivan Toney is on at the moment.
Over the last five games, Toney has found the back of the net six times, including a hat trick against Norwich City and two more goals against Burnley. And those clubs are very similar in quality to this weekend’s opponent.
BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds listed at Caesars, Brentford is listed as the favorite on the moneyline at +155 odds to go with a total of 2.5 goals.
I can’t trust either team defensively to play the total, but I do think there’s a clear side with value in the game. That said, my best bet is to back Brentford on a Draw No Bet wager at -120 odds.
If the price moves beyond -130, I would look at the road side on the moneyline at a juicy plus price instead.
I mentioned how Brentford has struggled on the road this season. However, Watford’s home form has not been good either.
Since Hodgson was hired, the Hornets have failed to pick up a single point in the four home games under him. They're also last in the EPL in points earned at home with only seven in 15 total matches at Vicarage Road.
You also have to look at how well the Bees have been playing since midfielder Christian Eriksen was inserted into the starting lineup. In his five starts, Brentford has posted a +3.5 xGDiff, averaged 1.82 xG per 90 minutes and found the back of the net 12 times during that stretch.
All the pressure will be on Watford at home, and with how well the opposition is playing, I have a hard time seeing this as the match where the host turns it around.
Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-120)
