Brentford vs. Burnley Odds
| Brentford Odds | +125 |
| Burnley Odds | +270 |
| Draw | +195 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+145 / -200) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Relegation will be on the minds of Brentford and Burnley when they square Saturday in a Premier League match at Brentford Community Stadium.
The Bees sit six points clear of safety after claiming all three points in a 3-1 victory over Norwich City last week, while the Clarets are only a point behind Everton for the final spot of safety.
Burnley dominated the reverse fixture at Turf Moor, earning a 3-1 victory over Brentford in the first meeting between these sides. The Clarets finished with a 2.2-0.7 edge in expected goals.
So, revenge will surely be on the minds of the Bees, who are winless in their last four home fixtures.
Results Have Been Unkind to Brentford
The home performances have been solid for manager Thomas Frank and Brentford, albeit a bit unlucky when it comes to the results.
Entering this fixture, the Bees own a -5 home goal differential against a +2.2 xGDiff, per fbref.com. Additionally, prior to dropping all three points against Newcastle United in a match where Brentford played down a man for nearly 80 minutes, they dropped points in three consecutive games in which they finished ahead in the xG battle.
However, Frank's squad appeared to turn a corner in its game at Norwich City. It created 2.1 xG — its highest output since Jan. 19 — and best road output since a Sept. 18 match.
Further, it defensive metrics at home remain solid. Exclude the recent fixture against Newcastle, plus all matches against top-six sides, and bettors will find Brentford has conceded only 6.4 xG in eight matches.
The Brentford attack has simultaneously performed very well in those same eight contests. All told, the Bees have created 10.5 xG, leading to a +4.1 xGDiff in those games. And yet, its actual goal differential is -1 in those eight tilts.
However, the good news for Brentford is that in three home matches against the current bottom-five sides, it has won all three points twice and all three games on xG as well.
Burnley Getting Better Results at Turf Moor
It's been a tale of two venues for Burnley this season as it has played much better at home than on the road.
At Turf Moor, the Clarets own a -2.9 xGDiff, good for four spots better than its current table position. However, in games played away from home, Burnley's xGDiff drops significantly to -11, the third-worst EPL, per fbref.com.
And even though manager Sean Dyche's squad is unbeaten in three consecutive road league fixtures, it lost the xG battle in two of those games. Plus, prior to a 3-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion, Burnley had yet to win a road contest outright.
A large portion of those road struggles can be attributed to Burnley's attack, which has created the fewest road xG in the league. Further, the Clarets have failed to create more than one xG in seven road games in a row.
The problems aren't limited to its attack, though. Burnley's defense is allowing almost 0.3 more xG per 90 minutes away from home compared to its performances at Turf Moor, plus it has only kept three road clean sheets and two of those were undeserved.
If there's good news for Burnley, its that in three matches against teams currently 14-17th in the table, the club has stayed within 0.6 xG in all three despite losing all those games.
BJ Cunningham's EPL Model Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Eventually Brentford's underlying home performances should catch up with it and I believe it comes against Burnley.
Not only is it a good revenge spot, but the Bees' positive record against the bottom five leads me to believe it continues the strong form from last weekend against Norwich City. Plus, having Ivan Toney fully available is a huge boost for Frank. With Toney on the pitch, Brentford is creating nearly 0.3 more xG/90 minutes this season.
Further, there's another advantage Brentford should have over Burnley. That's its record on set pieces. The Bees have scored the fourth-most goals off set piece situations this season, while the Clarets have conceded the ninth most.
With the visitors struggling to create meaningful scoring chances away from home, I think you see Brentford take the lead and use its solid home defense to see the match out.
With that in mind, I would play the Bees on the moneyline up to +110 odds.
Pick: Brentford ML (+125)
