Brentford vs. Newcastle Odds
| Brentford Odds | +150 |
| Newcastle Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -130) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Brentford hasn't won any of its last seven matches in the Premier League and all of a sudden, relegation is now a realistic possibility for the club in their first season in the English top flight since 1947.
The Bees' next three matches will go a long way toward deciding their relative safety from relegation, and that begins Saturday with a home match against surging Newcastle United.
The Magpies, who spent a lot of money in January, have improved considerably in their performances dating back to December. They're unbeaten in their last five EPL matches, with three wins and two draws. Sitting two points above Burnley from the relegation places and recently improved, Newcastle is now favored to avoid relegation compared to the three teams below them in Burnley, Watford and Norwich City.
This match is a classic example of how recent form can cause a line to overreact in one direction, thus creating an opportunity to buy low on the Bees and sell high on the Magpies, who are dealing with some injuries and should dip in form at some point given the overall quality of the squad.
Brentford Hoping to Halt Home Winless Skid
Brentford hasn't won any of its last three matches at the Brentford Community Stadium, but the club has been more unfortunate than not in those games. In their 3-1 loss to Manchester United, Brentford dominated the first half and missed a bunch of big scoring chances before its foe improved in the second half and took control of the game.
Over the whole 90 minutes, it was relatively even based on shots, chances created and expected goals, but the scoreline wasn't indicative of the way the game played out.
Fast forward to their next home match against Wolves and the Bees were considerably better, but their foes scored twice on 0.3 xG and won the game, 2-1, despite many fewer chances. And at home against Crystal Palace just two weeks ago, Brentford failed to take any chances again in a goalless draw, but won the shots and xG battles by large margins.
Brentford, whose away form has been pretty poor, has really struggled to do much of anything away from home. It's a major reason the Bees' xGDiff has taken a significant tumble in the last few months. However, the Bees have maintained their steady, impressive performances on home turf.
Brentford has the sixth-best xGDiff at home this season, behind only Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Crystal Palace. Despite this, their actual goal difference at home ranks just 14th in the league. They've been the least fortunate team in the league on home turf, and have a ton of positive regression coming in terms of results if the performances remain the same.
Brentford's attack could also be significantly boosted by the return of Ivan Toney to the lineup. Manager Thomas Frank suggested Toney would be available and he's one of the main attacking options alongside Bryan Mbeumo.
And while it's unclear what kind of form he'll be in, Brentford might have Christian Eriksen available debut as an attacking midfielder. Eriksen collapsed at the European Championships last summer and has had a long recovery, but his passing range could considerably boost the attack for the Bees.
Newcastle Finding Success Under Howe
Newcastle has turned its season around under new manager Eddie Howe, which has been bolstered by new signings, but it's not that clear the team really deserved to be lined as a better team than Brentford.
Especially when you consider all of the injuries adding up to striker Callum Wilson, right back Kieran Trippier and wide forward Matt Ritchie, the depth will be tested for this Magpies squad.
They might have Allan Saint-Maximin back in the lineup to boost the attack, but the club has been really poor away from home in the league as well. Newcastle ranks second to last behind only Norwich City in xGDiff away from St. James' Park. Even if you control for only the time Howe has managed the outfit, the numbers only improve to 18th overall.
Most of Newcastle's improvements have come at home, and they've also had a good recent run of fixtures. They played even with Watford, Leeds United, Aston Villa and West Ham United the last month, but managed to avoid defeat in all of them, winning two of the games.
There is some regression coming for this team, which has had a bunch of bounces and finishing variance break their way in the last month.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even if Newcastle is no longer one of the three worst EPL teams anymore, it shouldn't be a near Pick'em on the road at Brentford. The home/away splits for both clubs are two of the most extreme in the league, with the Bees being one of the league's best at home and the Magpies among the worst overall.
About a month ago, before Newcastle and Brentford played roughly even with their opponents and had bounces go against them, the latter would have been a much more significant favorite than they are in this matchup.
I'll take the discounted price on the Bees at home on the Draw No Bet line as my projections make them -145 in that market. I'm still rating Brentford as the better team overall as well.
Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-125)
