Brentford vs. Wolves Odds
| Brentford Odds | +205 |
| Wolves Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+140 / -175) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Brentford manager Thomas Frank's post-match interview went viral Wednesday after he claimed his team was unlucky not to be up multiple goals on Manchester United after dominating them in the first half. Brentford went on to lose that game 3-1 at home and now will host Wolves on Saturday at the Brentford Community Stadium.
The Bees have hit a rough patch in form of late and dropped to 14th place in the Premier League table following losses in five of their last six matches. The fixture list has been difficult — Liverpool away, Brighton away, Manchester City and United at home — but the Bees have also been a fit unfortunate.
The pressing intensity has remained and the attack has still been good at home, so there's reason to believe this is a good bounce-back spot at home.
Wolves have won three and drawn one and are unbeaten in four in the league, including wins against Brighton, Southampton and Manchester United with a draw against Chelsea. Following nine consecutive matches that hit the under, the Wolves' attack exploded for three goals last time out.
Despite the price seeming about right here, both attacks continue to have a ton of positive regression coming and Wolves defense is unlikely to continue this ridiculous and unsustainable run of goal prevention.
Attacking Regression Coming for Brentford
Brentford have averaged 1.45 xG per 90 at home this season despite playing the toughest schedule of opponents at home in the entire league. They've played Arsenal, City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United at home but still have been in the top-half of the league in chance creation.
They have not, however, finished those chances efficiently. That was on full display against United on Wednesday when the Bees created three big scoring chances and well over one expected goal but failed to score thanks to poor finishing and great goalkeeping from David de Gea.
They've averaged 1.09 goals at home this season and have attacking regression coming in a big way. The Bees don't have the most talented team in the league, but they excel in attack in two critical areas — throw-ins and set pieces.
Brentford has created by far the most expected goals this season from throw-ins, and even scored a goal against United directly from a long throw into the penalty area. It's an area of market inefficient that the analytically driven side has exploited to get an edge.
The Bees have been great on dead-ball set pieces and corners, too and that's the great equalizer for a team with a smaller budget and less talent than most of the league. The market has been consistently low on the Bees all year because of it.
Wolves Defense Continues to Defy Numbers
At the risk of sounding like a broken record when writing about Wolves, this team has defied all regression indicators for the last month and continues to post elite defensive numbers.
They're conceding 1.12 expected goals per 90 this season, yet averaging just 0.62 actual goals against. Jose Sá has been stellar in goal and saved more goals than everyone except de Gea, but they've also been quite fortunate with opponents' missing chances against them. Look no further than Man United hitting the bar from point-blank range, City and Liverpool scoring just twice from seven expected goals and Brighton posting 1.1 xG and being kept off the board.
Wolves have also underperformed their finishing numbers in attack, though, and have averaged 1.19 xG away from home this season. Combine that with Brentford's xG at home and you get a total closer to 2.5, without factoring in the defenses at all.
Bruno Lage's side have had just 1.45 goals per 90 in their games at even strength this season, but the xG total suggests it should be about 2.3.
Last game was the start of what should be more high-scoring Wolves games as finishing rates and chance conversion reverts back to the mean and Sá fails to keep up these unsustainable shot-stopping rates.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The last meeting between these two teams at Wolves ended 2-0 to Brentford, but the game was much more open than you'd expect between two defense-first sides.
When Wolves did break through the Bees press, they were able to get into space and the Brentford penalty area. Wolves hit the woodwork on multiple occasions and should have scored given their 0.9 xG created. But Brentford also had its best attacking performance away from home in the entire league with 2.5 xG and two goals.
Recent form would point toward the under in this game, but when you consider how much both teams have regression coming that points in the direction of goals, all the recent form has done is drop this total lower than it should be.
My projection for this game has 2.23 goals and I'm happy to play total clearing two goals on the alternative number at -120 odds or better. I also show value on both teams to score and in a game that could easily end in a 1-1 draw, so I'm also going to take back that wager as well.
Wolves have been the luckiest team in the league defensively and that won't continue forever, especially on the road against a Brentford side that has been excellent in attack at home.
Pick: Total Over 2 Goals (-105) | Both Teams to Score (+120)
