Brighton vs. Liverpool Odds
| Brighton Odds | +520 |
| Liverpool Odds | -195 |
| Draw | +325 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +115) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The title race rolls along in the Premier League, with a trip to American Express Community Stadium for Liverpool on tap Saturday as it squares off against Brighton & Hove Albion.
With the position the Reds are in, winning every single game is crucial and Brighton was able to take points off them earlier this season when the teams squared off at Anfield. In fact, Brighton is one of just three teams to get a positive result versus Liverpool on its home pitch in EPL play.
So, will the Seagulls be able to replicate their performance earlier in the campaign or will the Reds continue to thrive?
Brighton Chasing Better Form, Motivation
The Seagulls have been getting awful results of late, dropping four league games in a row and scoring just one goal in those fixtures combined.
However, the performances haven't been as quite as bad as the results indicate, as is often the case. In each of the losses, Brighton's expected-goals margin wasn't as bad as the scoreline.
In a 2-1 loss to Newcastle United, Brighton generated more xG than its foe. As for the 2-0 defeat against Aston Villa, the club generated 0.7 xG less than the winning side. Then, in a 3-0 setback versus Burnley, it only amassed 0.37 xG less than its counterpart.
Of course, a reason for not being able to execute on the fine margins in these games could be the lack of importance that any of this has for Brighton. As I've noted before, the Seagulls really have nothing to play for with their position in the middle of the table established, so it's just a matter of pride on the line.
In the Premier League, that should be enough to get a team going, but that little piece of extra juice has been tough to find. It could be a matchup with the league's second-placed side that provides the spark.
Liverpool Facing More COVID-19 Issues
Despite everything going right for the Reds right now — even a loss in the Champions League was really a win as they advanced to the quarterfinal round — they were dealt a blow in the form of health as it appears Liverpool is dealing with yet more COVID-19 issues.
Jürgen Klopp confirmed Friday that members of his squad are dealing with the virus once again, though he didn't name who exactly tested positive. However, we do know that Ibrahima Konate, Virgil van Dijk and Thiago Alcantara were absent from Friday's training session.
It would be a massive blow for Liverpool to be without the trio, but I can't understate how important van Dijk is to this team. For example, Liverpool hasn't lost a single home EPL match with van Dijk in the lineup. It has won 52 games and settled for eight draws. However, in the 18 games without van Dijk during that span, Liverpool has lost six at Anfield.
We saw last year what can happen to this side when it doesn't have the backbone of its starting lineup, and coupling an absent van Dijk with a missing Konate would be extremely hard to cope with in this meeting.
Joel Matip is an excellent center back, but he'd likely be paired with Joe Gomez, a capable option but not one Liverpool wants to rely on. Of course, these are all just assumptions, and van Dijk could have been absent from training for another reason, but it's the key question mark heading into this game.
BJ Cunningham's EPL Model Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
If there weren't any questions about health surrounding Liverpool, I'd probably have to side with the visitor to get a solid result. However, with the questions at hand, it's enough for me to take the value with Brighton.
Liverpool's average away xG per game margin away from Anfield is a solid 1.19, while Brighton's home average differential is 0.15 this season. That's right on the one-goal spread, but when considering the possible absence of van Dijk and potentially Konate, the balance shifts to the Seagulls.
Further, while the hosts have been playing on a weekly basis, this will be the Reds' third game in seven days, a number that's tough to cope with for any team. Even if Liverpool is one of the best positioned to deal with that situation, it won't help the cause.
I certainly believe Liverpool enters this fixture as the favorite, but getting a goal at even money is too much to pass up when considering the possible key absences that Liverpool might face. Van Dijk is almost individually worth a goal to this team, so it'll be nervy for Liverpool if it's without him.
Be sure to watch out for team news ahead of this tie since it will be crucial to the prematch odds and, ultimately, the match.
Pick: Brighton +1 (+100)
