Burnley vs. Chelsea Odds
| Burnley Odds | +650 |
| Chelsea Odds | -225 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -130) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In an important match at both ends of the Premier League table, Chelsea continues its busy schedule Saturday with a tricky trip to Burnley.
The Blues, who have played in four different cup competitions in the last few weeks, enter the game in third place on 50 points in the English top flight. Meanwhile, the Clarets have started to push themselves up the table with a decent run of form, but still sit in the relegation zone in 18th place.
Burnley was able to spring a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, and I’m expecting another low-scoring affair in this game at Turf Moor.
Burnley Fighting for EPL Survival
This season has not gone to plan for Burnley, but there are recent signs that show survival is still a possibility.
Over its last eight league matches, manager Sean Dyche’s side only has the losses to Liverpool and Leicester City on its résumé, while also picking up positive results against Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United during this stretch.
The primary reason for that has been the defensive metrics, where Burnley has held its opponents to an average of 1.21 expected goals per 90 minutes, during this run, according to fbref.com. This is the same club that ranks in the top 10 in the EPL for the fewest big chances surrendered (27) on the season.
However, Dyche’s team still struggles offensively, with Norwich the only team with lower numbers in xG per game (0.90) and goals scored (22) this season.
Chelsea Making Best of Busy Schedule
The recent fixture congestion Chelsea has had to go through has to be one of the more unique that has ever happened.
The Blues started February by winning the Club World Cup with wins over Al-Hilal and Palmeiras in Abu Dhabi before returning to their domestic league and playing in the knockout stage of the Champions League.
Once you mix in a loss in a penalty shootout in the EFL Cup last weekend and a midweek FA Cup match at Luton Town, this Chelsea side is very well-traveled entering this game.
You also have to wonder how the news of longtime owner Roman Abramovich selling the club will impact the club on and off the field.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When you look at the odds at BetMGM, it’s no surprise that Chelsea is listed as the -225 favorite on the moneyline to go along with a total of 2.5 goals.
I want no part of picking a side in this game, but I do see value in the total. That said, my best bet is to back the total staying under 2.5 goals at -130 odds.
If you first start with the hosts, the same bet has cashed in seven out of the last eight EPL games in Burnley games. It has also been profitable in home league matches, with the total falling under 2.5 goals in nine of 12 (75%) fixtures for an average of just 1.83 total goals per outing.
You can also look at how the bet has fared against similar competition, where fixtures at home against Arsenal, West Ham United, Manchester United and Liverpool have all finished with less than 2.5 goals.
As for the visitors, this same bet has gotten to the window in seven of their last nine EPL games and four of the last five road matches.
The advanced metrics also point to a low-scoring match, where Burnley’s last five league affairs have averaged a combined 1.86 expected goals. During that same span, the average in Chelsea’s fixtures drops to 1.66 per contest.
Once you add in the schedule congestion and the scoring issues for the Clarets, we should be in store for another low-event match.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-130)
