Burnley vs. Watford Odds
| Burnley Odds | +115 |
| Watford Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In the only Premier League match this weekend, Burnley welcomes Watford to Turf Moor on Saturday for a vital relegation six-point showdown.
The Clarets made a splash in the January transfer market with the signing of Dutch striker Wout Weghorst from Bundesliga side Wolfsburg. Needless to say, Weghorst will need to hit the ground running to keep his new club in the English top flight next season.
For the visitors, all eyes will be on the return of veteran manager Roy Hodgson to the EPL and he'll make his Hornets’ debut in this important game.
This showdown pits sides sitting in the drop zone being led by veteran coaches, which has me believing this could lead to a low-scoring fixture.
Weghorst Brings Offensive Punch to Burnley
After the departure of Chris Wood to Newcastle United in the transfer window, it was very clear that manager Sean Dyche was in desperate need of a new No. 9 to lead the team.
Weghorst has been a productive forward at both AZ Alkmaar and Wolfsburg, scoring at least 16 goals in his last four seasons in the Eredivisie. However, this year has been more of a struggle for the standout, as he posted just six goals in 17 starts for the German club.
Some would point to the drop in performance due to the team around him, but this will be the same issue he's going to deal with at Burnley. The Clarets rank near the bottom of the league in goals scored (16), expected goals per 90 minutes (0.96) and shots per match (10.61), according to fbref.com.
Another key addition to Dyche’s side will be the return of attacker Maxwel Cornet from the Africa Cup of Nations competition. Cornet leads the team with six league goals.
Watford Hoping Hodgson Can Save Season
When Watford takes the field, it will be under the leadership of its third manager this season. However, Hodgson is a very experienced leader that has been in this position before.
Hodgson inspired a "great escape" with Fulham back in 2007 before taking the club all the way to the Europa League final in the 2009-10 campaign. He also was hired at Crystal Palace after a winless start in 2017, only for Hodgson to steady the ship and keep the Eagles in the division for multiple seasons.
The key area for the new manager to focus on will be the defensive struggles, where Watford has allowed the most xG per game (1.91) on the season.
Unfortunately for Hodgson, he won’t have his full squad to choose from on debut, with the striking duo of Emmanuel Dennis (suspended) and Ismaila Sarr (AFCON) both unavailable for the road trip.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds at BetMGM, Burnley is listed as the home favorite at +115 on the moneyline to go along with a total of 2.5 goals.
I can’t get behind any team here, but I do see value in the total. That said, my best bet for the match is to take the total staying under 2.5 goals at -135 odds.
We know the struggles of the squads, but their offensive metrics have been even worse of late. Over its last six EPL games, Watford has only averaged 0.88 xG per match. Meanwhile, Burnley has created even less in that same stretch, settling for a .633 xG average.
The Clarets have also played to some lower-scoring fixtures on home soil, with the same bet cashing in six of 11 (55%) league games at Turf Moor for an average of just 2.29 total goals per game. As for the Hornets, their away games have finished under this number at the same 55% clip.
You also have to factor in the key strikers missing from Hodgson’s team. With Sarr and Dennis unavailable, the duo has either scored or assisted on 18 league goals this season, which is 78 percent of the goal production for Watford on the campaign.
These managers have been in many relegation six-pointers during their careers, and they’ll set their teams up very compact defensively to avoid defeat. When you add it all up, I don’t know where the goals will come from in this contest.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135)
