Crystal Palace vs. Burnley Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | -105 |
| Burnley Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+125 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Burnley and Crystal Palace produced impressive midweek Premier League victories ahead of each side facing their second match in four days in Saturday's showdown.
Crystal Palace handed Watford a beatdown at Vicarage Road in a 4-1 victory, thanks to two late goals from Wilfried Zaha. Meanwhile, Burnley outpaced Tottenham in a stunning 1-0 upset win at Turf Moor via a Ben Mee header.
This fixture is much more meaningful for the Clarets, who could escape the relegation zone with a victory. The Eagles sit 11th in the table, putting them nine points clear of safety.
Huge Opportunity for Crystal Palace
This will be the best chance for Crystal Palace to string together two consecutive victories all season.
On the heels of that 4-1 win away from home, where the Eagles are normally a below-average side, they get a chance to grab three points against a relegation candidate at home, where it has played nothing short of top class.
Manager Patrick Vieira's side owns the fifth-best home expected-goal differential in the English top flight and has conceded the fourth-fewest home xG, per fbref.com. In fact, its underlying metrics suggest Palace has been even better than its home record suggests (+5 goal differential on a +7.7 xGDiff; 16 goals against on 12.4 xG) this season.
Even though the Eagles have lost three consecutive home matches to West Ham United, Liverpool and Chelsea, this feels like a classic buy-low spot. They won the xG battle in two of those games and have won four in a row on xG against bottom-half opposition.
And while the Palace defense is normally the star at home, its attack has revved into form of late. Across its last five home EPL fixtures, the club is averaging 1.64 xG per 90 minutes.
That number gets even better in home matches against teams currently in the bottom five in the table. While it's a small sample — the Eagles have faced only three such opponents — it's averaging 1.77 xG/90 minutes in those fixtures.
Finally, this has the makings of a good revenge spot for Palace, which drew 3-3 at Turf Moor in the reverse fixture. However, it won the xG battle in that game.
Advanced Metrics Pretty Wild for Burnley
Much like Crystal Palace, the home/road splits for Burnley are drastically different.
The Clarets own the 13th-best home xGDiff in the Premier League, which is better than four sides ahead of it in the table, but simultaneously carry the third-worst road xGDiff in the league, per fbref.com.
Additionally, the underlying road metrics for Burnley suggest it has experienced some luck away from Turf Moor. Entering this fixture, it owns a -8 goal differential on a -10.5 xGDiff overall. Those struggles can be attributed to its lackluster road attacking numbers, as Burnley has created one xG in only four road contests.
The Clarets' defense has also sputtered lately on the road, conceding at least one xG in four of its last five road matches. Even if you only look at its defensive numbers against bottom-half sides, it's still not great. In four such fixtures, manager Sean Dyche's squad is conceding 1.7 xG per 90 minutes.
If there's any kind of positive to be had with Burnley's road record, it's that the attack has played "decently" against bottom-half outfits. In those same four tilts, Burnley has created at least 0.7 xG in every match and has matched its season-long xG/90 average (0.93) overall.
Lastly, Burnley has done well to earn results against Crystal Palace, earning at least a point in four consecutive meetings with the perennial mid-table side.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Rarely do you see a buy-low/sell-high combination in a single fixture, but I believe you're getting it here.
This feels like the bottom of the market for Crystal Palace, which could receive some positive regression. Meanwhile, Burnley has earned a result in two consecutive road games, but over-performed the xG numbers in both of them.
Additionally, even though Burnley has strung together two victories in a row, there's a big gap between its goal differential and xGDiff in those matches (+4 goal differential on +0.5 xGDiff) this season.
I question how Burnley will break down a high-ranking Palace home defense due for positive regression, while the latter's attacking numbers against the league's worst sides should cause concern for Dyche.
For those reasons, I like Crystal Palace to get back to its winning ways at Selhurst Park and end Burnley's mini-run in the process.
Pick: Crystal Palace ML (-105)
