Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +500 |
| Liverpool Odds | -190 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Sunday morning via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Liverpool travels to Selhurst Park on Sunday looking to extend their nine-match winning streak against Crystal Palace. Meanwhile, the Eagles hope to improve upon a strong home record with an upset victory.
The reverse meeting between these sides saw Liverpool dominate at Anfield, winning 3-0. However, all three goal-scorers — Naby Keita, Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah — remain away on international duty for this fixture.
Nonetheless, Liverpool arrive in good form having stayed unbeaten in their last five games across all competitions, while Palace have only one win in their last five EPL fixtures.
Defensive Regression Hitting Crystal Palace
The good news for Palace backers in this fixture is that they will be playing at a venue where they are far superior.
Manager Patrick Viera’s squad has a +7.8 xGDiff in home Premier League matches this season, the fourth-best mark in the league. That comes against a -7.9 xGDiff away from Selhurst Park, the fifth-worst mark in England’s top flight.
However, despite losing their last home outings against West Ham, Crystal Palace still have only lost two games outright at Selhurst Park this season and won all but two matches on expected goals.
That said, the Palace defense has slowly begun to struggle as of late on home turf. In their first seven home fixtures, the Eagles allowed one or more expected goals only once. Yet, in the last four home fixtures, they have allowed 1.0+ xGA in three, per fbref.com.
However, Viera’s attack has consistently managed to get into good positions at home. It holds the sixth-best home xG total and has posted at least 1.5 xG in six of the last seven games at Selhurst Park. Plus, not since an opening home fixture against Brentford have Palace been held goalless on home turf.
Liverpool Humming Along Despite Absences
Most individuals — myself included — assumed Liverpool would not be as dominant without Mané and Salah, their two leading goal-scorers this season.
Those absences haven't haven't been a problem, though, as Liverpool dominated their three matches without the duo. Included in that record are a 3-0 home victory over Brentford last weekend and a 2-0 midweek victory against Arsenal to advance to the League Cup final.
And while some of these metrics came with Mané and Salah, the fact remains Liverpool have played incredibly well recently. They have won nine of the last 10 games on xG and have never generated less than 1.3 xG in that timeframe.
Additionally, the Liverpool defense arrives in fantastic form as it has allowed fewer than 1.0 expected goal in seven of the last 10, per fbref.com. All told, the Reds have allowed 0.87 xGA per 90 minutes in those 10 EPL fixtures, well below their average of 0.99 xGA this campaign.
Plus, manager Jürgen Klopp’s attack has traveled very well away from Anfield. Its one goal-less affair was undeserved and Liverpool have scored two or more road goals in nine of 11 fixtures away from Merseyside.
Betting Analysis & Pick
It feels dangerous stepping in front of a Liverpool juggernaut, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
If Klopp and company hadn’t participated in a midweek fixture that saw the German utilize eight players who also played against Brentford, I might look at this differently.
However, given how well the Eagles have played at home, I trust they will generate good scoring chances against a worn-down Liverpool squad. Plus, Viera’s team has a good record against top-half sides at home — 10 goals on 9.3 xG and six goals against on 4.6 xGA this season.
Lastly, even though they have an abysmal road record, Palace are still seventh in big chances created and ninth in total xG. So even though an outright victory is a big ask, I’m confident Palace stay within striking distance of Liverpool.
Pick: Crystal Palace +1 (-105)
