Fulham vs. Liverpool Odds
| Fulham Odds | +1150 |
| Liverpool Odds | -400 |
| Draw | +525 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125 / -185) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The Premier League season has arrived, which means it's time for one of the league's consistent top contenders to open up another campaign.
Powerful Liverpool travels to Craven Cottage for a Saturday battle with newly promoted Fulham, a side that finished atop the table in the Championship last season.
With a Community Shield win against Manchester City in the rearview mirror, how the favored visiting side performs in its first league game of the year? Let's take a look to see if we can find some betting value.
Fulham
While Fulham only narrowly edged out Bournemouth for the Championship title, it comfortably booking a place in the English top flight via a top-two spot.
The Cottagers amassed 90 points behind a stunning 106-goal output. Over a 46-game season, Fulham posted a goal average of more than two goals per game, with the next-highest team being 1.61 in the second division.
That was backed by a 2.07 xG/game total, showing that the Cottagers' performance was no fluke. Fulham also conceded just 1.11 xGA/game, and with a near xG/game differential, it's no wonder why it found so much success.
By The Numbers
- 63 — No matter which way you look at it, the positive +63 xGDiff that Fulham had in the Championship was staggering. In the EPL last season, Liverpool amassed a 68-goal differential, while Manchester City's was 73 in the category. Only four teams in the PL had more than a +15 goal differential.
- 10.7 — The Cottagers were at the top of the Championship in terms of this percentage conversion rate. They also boasted the most shots and shots on target in the league. That's a dangerous combination.
Liverpool
For as good of a season as the Reds had, there were some drawbacks. The club had a chance to post a historic quadruple-winning season, but in the final week, chances at EPL and Champions League titles slipped away.
It's hard to fault the Reds for Aston Villa throwing away a two-goal lead against Man City in a matter of minutes, but they were flat and outclassed against Real Madrid the next weekend in the UCL final.
After losing Sadio Mané, and bringing in Darwin Nunez and Fabio Carvalho, a new attack will be implemented. Most of the familiar faces are there, but after reaching the cusp of one of the greatest seasons in the sport's history, Liverpool has to get right back at it just a couple months after falling short.
By The Numbers
- 84.01 — That's the total number of xG that Sadio Mané produced in his time with Liverpool.
- 8 — Liverpool lost just two contests in its previous league campaign, but that wasn't good enough to lift a the trophy. It was the eight draws suffered by the Reds that played the biggest role in their narrow defeat to the Cityzens.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Though Liverpool has the far superior squad in this fixture, it was best at Anfield last season, as is often the case.
Liverpool posted a 1.11 xGDiff away from home in the prior season, while Fulham lost five games in 23 at Craven Cottage in the previous campaign.
I'm not expecting Fulham to get a result in this game, per se, but this is a generous number against the spread for a Liverpool team that will need to find its approach early in the season without one of its leaders.
I won't jump to conclusions after a game that's essentially a friendly in the Community Shield, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Fulham really test the title contenders.
The Pick: Fulham +1.5 (+125 or better)
