Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can West Ham United Find Form in Battle Against Leicester City?

Leicester vs. West Ham Odds

Leicester City looks to rebound from a loss on Thursday to Liverpool when it hosts fourth-place West Ham United on Sunday at the King Power Stadium.

Things have gone from bad to worse for Leicester, which has lost three of its last four matches across all competitions. The issues have mounted defensively and were on full display against Liverpool.

However, this is a good opportunity to get a result against a top-six side to get its season back on track.

The Hammers have hit a bit of a rough patch, but were able to squeak by Watford in Tuesday’s 1-0 home win. West Ham is in the thick of the race for the top four and needs to continue to pick up results if it wants to hold off Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham. Three points here would be massive for the Hammers.

Leicester City Needs to Improve Defense

The Foxes have had all sorts of defensive issues. Leicester is allowing 1.82 expected goals per match, 16.1 shots per 90 minutes and 1.5 big scoring chances per contest.

All of those are in the bottom five in the Premier League. It gets worse when they have to face the top-seven teams, because the Foxes are conceding 2.46 xG and 2.5 big scoring chances per game.

Also, not surprisingly, Leicester has the worst home defense in the league , allowing 1.85 xG per match. The game against Liverpool was a perfect encapsulation on how bad their defense has been.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

On the other hand, Leicester is used to playing in these type of high-scoring meetings now, because its offense has been able to somewhat mask the defensive problems.

Since Nov. 20, when Leicester suffered a 3-0 shutout loss to Chelsea and marked the first real sign of defensive trouble, matches involving the club are averaging a whopping 4.0 xG overall.

West Ham Needs to Find Offensive Rhythm

West Ham’s offense has been somewhat lost in its last two EPL matches, creating only 0.3 xG against Manchester United and 0.7 xG against Watford last time out. However, this a perfect spot for the Hammers to “get right” against one of the EPL's worst defenses.

The key to that offense getting right is West Ham's attacker Jarrod Bowen, who has been in incredible form. Bowen scored against Watford, which makes it six goals and three assists in his last 10 appearances.

West Ham has gone through some issues defensively ever since Angelo Ogbonna went down for the season. Without Ogbonna, West Ham is allowing 1.31 xG per match, which is significantly higher than 1.02 xG per outing with him in the lineup.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I have 3.39 goals projected for this match, so I love the total clearing 2.5 goals at -145 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-145)