Although the Premier League slate this weekend is weaker than usual, we’re here to help you build up that March Madness bankroll.
Four games fill out the card, which run through Sunday, with all having implications for the European positions or the battle for relegation. My colleague, Brett Pund, will have a preview and best bet for the Sunday clash between Tottenham vs. West Ham United, so I’m here to share plays for Arsenal vs. Aston Villa and Leicester City vs. Brentford on the small slate.
Only Brentford arrives this weekend with a win in its previous fixture, so expect all four sides to be chomping at the bit for three points.
That said, here’s how I’m playing my two favorite matches.
Premier League Best Bets
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | +195 |
| Arsenal Odds | +135 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 8:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
It was a disappointing midweek performance from Arsenal, but I expect this is a good opportunity to buy-low on its attack.
Aston Villa’s defensive efforts against the top-six sides, plus West Ham, have been absolutely dreadful, even on home soil. In 10 such fixtures to date, manager Steven Gerrard’s side has conceded 18.5 expected goals. In four such fixtures at home, it has allowed 7.1 xG or 42 percent of its total xGA output at Villa Park.
Meanwhile, Arsenal has absolutely dominated sides below them in the table of late. Since Dec. 2, the Gunners have recorded 24 xG in 12 fixtures against sides currently fifth or worse in the current Premier League table.
That said, Villa has played quite well offensively at home this year. In four such fixtures, it has created eight xG and has yet to post an output below 1.3 xG at Villa Park this year. Recent form has been strong for Villa as well, as it has generated 6.6 xG in its last four EPL outings.
Against a fatigued Arsenal defense, I expect you’ll see at least one goal from the hosts, especially considering no defense has deservedly held them goalless at Villa Park. However, the Gunners are playing so well right now and hasn’t deservedly dropped points two matches in a row since the second and third weeks of the season in fixtures against Manchester City and Chelsea.
Go for an Arsenal victory in which both teams get on the board.
Hennion's Pick: Single Game Parlay — Arsenal ML & Both Teams To Score — Yes (+320)
Leicester City vs. Brentford Odds
| Leicester Odds | +120 |
| Brentford Odds | +225 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Brentford has been atrocious away from home, owning -7.3 xGDiff on the road against a +3.4 xGDiff at home, but I don’t hate this spot for the visitors.
Rejuvenated by the return of Ivan Toney, Brentford’s attack has played extremely well in its last two outings. Albeit in two matches against Norwich City and Burnley, the Bees created a minimum of 1.8 xG in each and eclipsed 1.5 total team goals in both matches.
Now, the club travels to face a Leicester City side that, on paper, is a poor matchup for Brentford, particularly in one category. Per Opta, Brentford has created the second-most xG off set piece situations, while Leicester has conceded the most xG in the league off dead-ball situations.
That said, Leicester has played very well at home against bottom-half opposition. In five such fixtures, manager Brenden Rodgers’ side has created at least two xG in four of five games. Even though Jamie Vardy will miss out for the Foxes, I trust the hosts’ frontline will catch out a Bees' defense that hasn’t kept a road clean sheet since mid-September.
For those reasons, I’m backing another Single Game Parlay featuring Both Teams To Score (Yes) and total clearing two goals. I can foresee a gamescript with at least four goals here, so I think you’re getting good value at this price.
Hennion's Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (+110)
