Spurs vs. Wolves Odds
| Spurs Odds | -155 |
| Wolves Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+115 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Sunday morning via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Tottenham's late collapse on Wednesday at home against Southampton cost Spurs a chance to jump into the top four in the Premier League table.
However, they won't have to wait long to try to erase that defeat from their memory when they host Wolverhampton on Sunday in North London.
Spurs have made significant strides in underlying metrics and results since Antonio Conte joined the club, but they still suffer from bouts of inconsistency and poor defending, as they did in the 3-2 loss to the Saints.
Wolves have the opposite problem: scoring goals have been a real issue for Bruno Lage's men, after they were blanked at home on Thursday by Arsenal. Wolves lost the game 1-0 and managed just 0.95 xG despite playing up a man for more than 20 minutes.
The defense has been lucky to not concede more and the attack has struggled to finish off chances, but they still average less than one goal scored per game in the EPL this year.
For a team chasing Europe, that's not a sustainable way of playing when wins are going to be needed to get there. However, on Sunday as a road underdog, can the Wolves defense make life difficult for Spurs?
Spurs Struggling Despite Solid Metrics
Spurs continue to have a ton of positive attacking regression coming in the Antonio Conte era. They've produced 1.99 xG per 90 minutes at even strength under Conte, but the finishing slump of Harry Kane has meant that Spurs have only scored about 1.3 goals per 90 minutes.
The market has adjusted for Spurs significant uptick in chance creation, but it hasn't quite properly adjusted enough, based on my projections. The defense is actually the opposite. They've over performed defensively and while they were finally punished by Southampton, Wolves could be the team to take advantage as well.
Tottenham has really struggled defending crosses to the back post especially, and crosses are a main way that Wolves will look to attack them in this game. This is a prime opportunity to buy low on the Tottenham attack and sell high on a Wolves team that has been ridiculously lucky defensively and relied on unsustainably good goalkeeping.
Tottenham has produced at least 1.5 xG in eight of the last nine games and has produced at least two expected goals in all but one home game since December began. Any concerns over the ball progression or shot getting ability of Kane have been laid to rest.
Wolves Can't Seem to Finish Chances
Wolverhampton has struggled to score goals in every way imaginable, but they are due for some positive attacking regression and have failed to effectively turn scoring chances into goals.
They’ve produced just 19 goals in 22 league games so the attack is pretty dire, but the xG suggests they should be closer to 23 goals. Wolves are more comfortable playing on the counterattack against top sides anyway and will be able to do that against Spurs on Sunday.
The real and ongoing story with this Wolves side is how fortunate the defense has been. José Sá has saved more goals based on post-shot xG than any keeper in all of Europe. Sá can’t possibly sustain that and Wolves again were fortunate to only concede one goal against Arsenal at home.
The Gunners managed 1.55 xG in just 70 minutes and while the goal itself was fluky, the regression suggests that Wolves have been net the luckiest defense in Europe this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Wolves have allowed 28 expected goals this season and only conceded 17 actual goals from those numbers. I’m going to keep looking to bet against this Wolves defense because history indicates those numbers will converge quite a bit as the season continues.
There’s also a bit of a dead-cat bounce for this attack, which is vastly underperforming the talent at its disposal. Even if Raul Jimenez has lost a step, there’s more than enough good creators in space and crossers to take advantage of an inconsistent Spurs defense
Even though they’ve gone under the total in 10 of 12 games, I’m going against the grain and betting on regression and goals.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+115)
