Watford vs. Norwich City Odds
| Watford Odds | +105 |
| Norwich City Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Friday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated on Friday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
To kick off the latest Premier League slate, Watford welcomes Norwich City to Vicarage Road on Friday for a very important relegation six-point match.
The sides enter this showdown ranked back-to-back in the table, with the Hornets just outside of the drop zone in 17th on 14 points. Meanwhile, the Canaries — fresh off last weekend's victory — have a rare opportunity to move out of the bottom three with a win.
Watford has won the last five league games in this series, including the 3-1 triumph in September, and I think this is a great spot to back the home side.
Watford Hoping to Build Off Latest Result
Before the postponement of the midweek fixture with Burnley, this was set up to be an important week for Watford, which was scheduled to play all three teams in the relegation zone.
The Hornets earned a valuable point against the Magpies with a late goal at St. James’ Park last weekend, narrowly winning the expected goals battle by +0.1, according to fbref.com.
The result broke up a run of six consecutive EPL defeats, where Watford was outscored by a 17-7 margin and posted a -7.5 xG difference.
However, it was a difficult run of opponents for the Hornets, playing Tottenham, West Ham United, Manchester City and Chelsea during that span.
Norwich City Lands Crucial Win Against Everton
Norwich was also able to stop a losing run this past weekend, picking up a vital 2-1 home win at home against struggling Everton.
Before the victory, the Canaries had lost their last six league games, failing to score in all of those matches and getting outscored by 15 goals in the process.
The attacking troubles have been a common theme for Norwich, ranking last in the EPL in non-penalty expected goals per match (0.79), shots per game (10.19) and big scoring chances created (eight) this season.
Finnish striker Teemu Pukki leads the team with five goals, but hasn’t found the back of the net since Nov. 30 in a 1-1 draw at Newcastle.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In one of the very few times this season, Watford enters the match as a favorite at BetMGM at +105 on the three-way moneyline, while the total is posted at 2.5 goals.
I do want to back the Hornets in this game, but I’ll be looking into the Single Game Parlay market to get a better price.
That said, my best bet is to parlay Watford to win and the total staying under 4.5 combined goals scored at +135 odds.
I touched on the horrible attacking metrics for the Canaries. However, the Hornets haven't been very prolific in front of goal either. Over the last five league games, Watford has averaged just 0.84 xG per 90 minutes, while the Norwich has been even worse during that span at 0.56 xG per match.
I do have much more confidence in the attacking duo for the Hornets in Joshua King and Emmanuel Dennis to produce a goal, with the duo outscoring the Canaries, 13-10, as a team this season.
As for landing on the under 4.5 goals, these fixtures this late in the season between teams scrapping around the relegation zone typically lend to low-scoring affairs.
In Watford’s four games against bottom three teams and Leeds United, none of those matches have combined for more than 4.5 goals. The same bet would have also cashed in all four contests of similar opposition for Norwich as well.
If this is a game where chances could be at a premium, I’ll take the home team with multiple goal-scoring options at a plus price to get a result.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Watford ML & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+135)
