Arsenal at Aston Villa Odds, Pick
| Arsenal odds | +110[BET NOW] |
| Aston Villa Odds | +220 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +280 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3 (+115/-137) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Tuesday, 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds as of Monday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Aston Villa's battle to avoid relegation continues on Tuesday as they welcome Arsenal to Villa Park for the penultimate game of their respective seasons.
With Watford losing to West Ham 3-1 over the weekend, Villa could draw even on points with Watford with a upset over Arsenal.
The Gunners have become a quite tricky team to read at this point of the season. On one hand, they just beat Liverpool and Man City, but on the other hand they are safe in the mid-table and are too far down to really be gunning (pun intended) for the last spot in the Europa League.
Defeating Chelsea in the FA Cup Final is their only real hope at qualifying for European Football next season.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Arsenal
Arsenal have been steadily improving since the restart, picking up 13 points over their last eight games in the Premier League. The Gunners are coming off a win over Manchester City as +750 underdogs in the FA Cup semifinal.
The really interesting point to glean from Arsenal's win over City was their style of play. The Gunners proved they could sit back and defend City and be successful on the counterattack. Arsenal’s defense is their Achilles' heel, so if they can build off that performance they may be heading in the right direction.
That being said, Arsenal's +4 goal differential over the last month has been inflated compared to their -0.6 expected goal differential. The main driving force behind that overperformance is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's striking prowess as the club captain has been converting difficult chances at an impressive clip over the past few weeks.
Arsenal will need to create better scoring chances for this form to be sustainable.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa have struggled to pick up points all season.
While their goal scoring has not been relegation-bad, their defense has been flat-out putrid.
The advanced metrics are not kind to Villa, who have surrendered 66 goals on 70 expected goals against for the season.
Aston Villa's form has been poor since the restart, but they may have been a bit unlucky. Villa's goal difference is -5 over those eight games, while their xG differential is actually in the black at +0.12. This difference mainly comes on the offensive end, where Villa should have picked up another three goals over those games according to xG models.
Needless to say, Villa need this win to avoid relegation. Watford's house is on fire, and now might be the time to catch them.
| Stats Since Restart | Arsenal (8 GP) | Aston Villa (8 GP) |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.63 | 0.63 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.22 | 1.09 |
| Goals against per game | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| Goal differential | 4 | -5 |
| Total expected goals per game | -0.6 | +0.12 |
Analysis
I think this may be a sleepy spot for Arsenal. They just beat the past two Premier League champions in back-to-back matches and they have nothing to really gain from this contest. The only game that matters for Arsenal is their FA Cup Final against Chelsea on Aug. 1. Don't be surprised if the Gunners have the safety on.
I think Villa have value at anything above +220 and would suggest playing half your bet on the moneyline and then half on +0.5 goals up to -130.
Advanced metrics would point to the Under 2.5, as well, but I think Villa will really go for it here, so I will pass on the total.
