Burnley vs. Wolves Odds
| Burnley Odds | +165 |
| Wolves Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+140 / -200) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Burnley welcomes Wolverhampton to Turf Moor on Sunday in desperate need of a win to bolster its chances of avoiding relegation from the Premier League.
The Clarets are unbeaten in their two matches since the departure of longtime manager Sean Dyche picking up a draw at West Ham United and a midweek victory against Southampton last time out.
Meanwhile, Wolves enter as the fresher team after a two-week break, sitting in eighth with a chance to secure European qualification for next season.
Looking at the recent games between the teams, Burnley is unbeaten in the last six EPL meetings, but no win would be bigger than this one here.
That said, let's dive into the match to find the best betting value on the board.
Burnley Nabs Points After Dyche's Departure
When the surprising news of Dyche’s departure was released, most people thought it was a bad idea. However, Burnley has picked up four valuable points and moved even closer to Everton in the league table.
The Toffees play later on the Sunday card, so a victory would not only push the Clarets above them in the standings, it would also shift the pressure onto a struggling Everton side.
Even in the two great performances, Burnley has still given up a lot of chances to its opponents, allowing an average of 1.65 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
This has been the main issue for the Clarets all season, where they rank toward the bottom of the English top flight in xG allowed per game (1.51) and opponents’ shots per match (16.2) overall.
Wolves Chasing Coveted European Berth
After a two-week layoff due to Manchester City’s scheduling conflict last weekend, Wolverhampton has to like its chances of possibly qualifying for European competition next season.
The club is just three points behind West Ham for seventh place, with one extra game remaining compared to the London side.
Although some teams ahead of them would likely not be too excited to be involved in the Europa Conference League, it's safe to assume Wolves would love the opportunity to play in the competition.
This should give manager Bruno Lage a great motivational tool to use to keep his team going all the way until the final matchday on the schedule.
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Oddsmakers at DraftKings are expecting a close match, listing the home side as the slight +175 moneyline favorite, while the total is set at 2.5 goals with heavy juice toward the under in his meeting.
I don’t see any value in picking a winner in the game, but I do see a good price on the total. So, my best bet for this showdown is to back the total flying over two goals at -125 odds via the alternative total.
If your sportsbook only offers totals of 1.5 or 2.5 goals, I would rather play the plus price for there to be at least three goals instead of laying a big number for there to only be two goals.
Combined xG averages in recent fixtures is a stat I like to look at when playing totals, and both teams are due some goals based on previous matches.
Over their last six contests, the matches involving the Clarets have averaged 3.05 xG per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Wolves’ games have posted a combined xG average of 2.64 in their last eight in the league.
The main reason for this has been poor defending from both sides. Wolverhampton has conceded 1.83 xG per match to their opponents and only secured two clean sheets during that run of eight games, which is still just slightly better than Burnley’s 1.84 average xG given up over the same span.
With both clubs needing a result for different reasons, I think we’ll see a game that should have at least multiple goals to push. However, I’m expecting more to get us a winning ticket here on this very low total.
Pick: Total Over 2 Goals (-125)
