Leeds vs. Man City Odds
| Leeds Odds | +875 |
| Man City Odds | -350 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+110 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Manchester City travels to Elland Road on Saturday to take on Leeds United in a Premier League match with huge ramifications at both ends table.
The Cityzens enter the weekend with a one-point lead over Liverpool for first place in the standings, with the latter playing earlier in the card.
Meanwhile, the Peacocks find themselves just five points above the relegation zone in 16th place, looking for a big victory to cement their status in the English top flight for the next campaign.
In the reverse fixture, City secured a commanding 7-0 victory, making me believe this is another opportunity to see the league leader score a lot of goals.
Marsch Delivering for Leeds at Elland Road
When American manager Jesse Marsch was hired, Leeds got off to a rocky start with back-to-back losses. However, the former RB Leipzig boss has turned things around in recent fixtures.
Marsch has guided the club to a five-match unbeaten run heading into this game, picking up wins over Norwich City, Wolverhampton and Watford to go with draws against Southampton and Crystal Palace.
In his seven matches in charge, the Peacocks have posted a +1.5 xGDiff and averaged 1.31 xG per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
However, this is a big step up in class compared to the recent opponents, which should be a great test for Marsch and his Leeds outfit.
Sandwich Spot Could Be Issue for Man City
This has to be one of the worst scheduling spots of the year for City, with this match sandwiched between the two Champions League semifinal legs against Spanish giant Real Madrid.
Luckily for manager Pep Guardiola, he has plenty of squad depth to rotate in fresh players and not lose a step.
However, this likely means joint leading scorers Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez will likely not be in the starting lineup, which still might not matter.
On the season, Guardiola’s side ranks second in the EPL in xG per match (2.26), shots per 90 minutes (18.03) and big scoring chances created (62) overall.
Betting Analysis & Pick
As you would expect, Caesars has City listed as the heavy -304 moneyline favorite to go along with a high total of 3.5 goals.
I’m looking to back the league leaders in this game, but I’ll be checking out another market to target the visitors. That said, my best bet is to play the Man City team total to fly over 2.5 goals at even money.
If you start with the Cityzens, this bet has been profitable in games against similar foes. In matches against teams in the bottom five of the EPL (like Leeds), Guardiola’s team has scored at least three goals in six of nine matches.
Meanwhile, the Peacocks have improved under Marsch, but still have a very leaky defense. In its last six matches, Leeds has allowed 1.38 xG per 90 minutes and only one of those sides (Wolverhampton) is in the top half of the league standings.
You also have to look at how the team has performed against top competition. Against top-five side this season, Leeds has given up an average of 4.14 goals per match on 23 xG in those contests.
You could also take a shot at any of City’s attacking players in the scoring market that did not start in the midweek Champions League match, which includes Raheem Sterling and Jack Grealish as great options.
Guardiola has his team firing on all cylinders coming down this final stretch of the season, so I think it will continue with more goals in this match.
Pick: Manchester City — Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
