Liverpool vs. Spurs Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -225 |
| Spurs Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125 / -175) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
When you consider the implications on both the Premier League title race and chase for the top four in the table, Liverpool's match against Tottenham on Saturday at Anfield is the most important fixture remaining on the calendar.
Both clubs are desperate for points chasing their respective season-long goals in the English top flight.
For the Reds, it's a league title and chance at the rare quadruple. For Spurs, it's a return to Champions League after the club failed to finish top four the last two seasons.
Tottenham has improved massively under manager Antonio Conte, now sitting fourth in both xG difference and my own power ratings. However, Spurs sit two points behind Arsenal and need a result in this match ahead of Thursday's North London derby.
Liverpool has better underlying numbers than Manchester City since the start of the year. The Reds have closed the gap to one point on the Cityzens, but the latter's first-half dominance and build-up lead will be enough to take the title if it wins its final four matches.
This fixture has provided plenty of drama of late and Tottenham has already tied Liverpool and beaten City twice, providing the evidence the club can make this a competitive match.
Liverpool Chasing EPL, Champions League Titles
The Reds have been in dominant form since the new year began. Since a Jan. 2 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, Liverpool has 13 league wins and one draw, which came against Manchester City at Etihad Stadium. Of course, the Reds have scored plenty of goals in that time span, but the real story has been the improved defense.
Liverpool has averaged 2.38 xG in that 14-match stretch, scoring 2.36 goals per game. Both are tops in the league, but the Reds have had the league's best attack all season. The defense, though, is conceding just 0.68 xGA per 90 minutes, second only to Manchester City. The defense has also way over-performed its xGA, with just 0.29 goals allowed in the last 14 contests.
Four goals allowed in 14 games is impressive, but not sustainable. I've written and talked about Liverpool's defensive regression, and while it's occurred in Europe (Liverpool conceded at home to Inter Milan; allowed three goals to Benfica; then, two more to Villarreal), it has remained more dominant in the league than is sustainable.
These numbers are comparable to the Chelsea stats from the end of last year, but the Reds play a high-risk, high-reward style that leaves them exposed against the right team.
And Tottenham is exactly the team that can exploit the high line and space behind the fullbacks who love to push up the pitch when Liverpool has the ball.
Injuries Could Be Major Issue for Spurs
Tottenham enters the match in a bit of an injury crisis, especially at fullback. Sergio Reguilon and Matt Doherty are carrying knocks, meaning Conte's first-choice wing backs in the back three system are out. Both were in excellent form, creating a ton of chances and crucial width when Tottenham was playing its best.
The injuries force second-choice wing backs Emerson Royal and Ryan Sessegnon into the lineup, with both having up-and-down seasons in these positions. They have critical defensive responsibilities in dealing with Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson on the wings, but are also crucial for Spurs attempts to exploit the aggressive fullback play from Liverpool.
Harry Kane is going to come short in possession to draw in the Liverpool center backs, then look to spring Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski in the channels. This is the method of how Spurs tore apart City's high defensive line and will surely be how they attack the Reds.
Tottenham has averaged 1.79 xG per match since Conte was hired in November, which is the third best in the EPL behind only City and Liverpool. Kane and Son have found their form after both ran well below their xG early in the campaign.
There are still major questions about Tottenham's defense, especially through set pieces and crosses. That's a key area where Liverpool will have the edge in attack. However, Spurs should find more success and take advantage of a Reds defense that has run well of late.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The last time these teams met at Tottenham back in December, Spurs produced 3.5 xG and two goals. Although Liverpool was short-handed in midfield and didn't have Virgil van Dijk, the visiting side conceded more xG on that day than it has all season.
Liverpool is sure to take some chances with its press in a bet that it will probably outscore Tottenham. Even if that bet pays off and the Reds win this and score multiple goals, the visitor will threaten at the other end of the pitch.
Spurs ripped apart an even better defense of Manchester City back in January and is the more rested side, given they didn't play a midweek match in Europe.
For my wager, I'm targeting the total. Liverpool's defense has more regression coming, even beyond the two goals conceded in Spain this past Tuesday.
Tottenham should be able to produce plenty of chances in transition and enough to get at least one goal against the Reds' defense, with its entire front three fit and firing at the moment.
I show value on the total going over the number, which is why I'm backing a Single Game Parlay pairing Both Teams To Score (Yes) with the total clearing 2.5 goals at -115 odds or better as my top pick.
I expect Liverpool to win, but if Tottenham gets steamed to +1.5 on the spread line at -120 or better, I'd play it to keep this match tight at Anfield as well.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105)
