Man City vs. Watford Odds
| Man City Odds | -900 |
| Watford Odds | +2200 |
| Draw | +875 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-110 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Manchester City hosts Watford in Saturday's Premier League matchup, with its heavyweight clash with Real Madrid looming next week in the Champions League semifinal round.
There's no time to rest in the English top flight, though, especially not when a lone dropped point could mean losing a grasp of the league title. However, this is about as big of a favorite you can be in this league.
Of course, one of City's rare losses on the season came as a similarly sized favorite against Crystal Palace, but it would be an even bigger shock to see the league leader drop points on home soil at Etihad Stadium.
So, read on to see where I'm finding betting value in the lopsided contest.
Man City Entering Thick Period of Campaign
Over the next 16 days, City will play five games across two competitions in the EPL and UCL, and won't be able to rest for any of those matches.
While it'll be a hefty EPL favorite outings against Watford, Leeds United and Newcastle United, this is a dangerous league to get complacent in, which I mentioned earlier. Manager Pep Guardiola and the Cityzens are experienced with this situation, though they've never won both competitions in the same year — or once won the Champions League — so they still haven't perfected the formula to crack the equation.
Rotation will be difficult, but this is one of the deepest — if not the deepest — teams in world football, so if anyone is capable of finding the right lineups and squad management, it's Guardiola.
Watford Chasing Historic, Miraculous Run
The Hornets have averaged about 0.68 points per game on the season, but it would take a six-game run averaging approximately two points per game to give themselves a realistic shot at staying in the Premier League.
For reference, City and Liverpool have managed to post approximate 2.4 points-per-game clips to put on yet another epic title-race battle. It's not looking pretty for Watford, which sits at -5000 odds to be relegated.
Earning a point or more in this fixture is as tough as it gets, as the Hornets have to deal with a team that has the best expected-goal differential per game at home in the entire league and has everything to play for in this meeting.
Getting a result here would be nothing short of a miracle.
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Picks
While City is a gargantuan favorite, I've already talked about why that's deserved, and backing the host side against a 2.5-goal spread with juice isn't the most enticing idea. That's especially the case when its 1.81 xG differential/game at home combined with Watford's -0.81 xG differential/game away matches up pretty well with the line.
Additionally, the Hornets have kept most of their recent games within that margin on xG and/or actual result. That isn't to say I'm going to back Watford, nor am I going to target the total, but rather target a more unique angle.
Kevin Friend will be refereeing this match, and the Brit accounts for one of the highest cards/game average in the English top flight at 4.6 card per game. Though City and Watford aren't heavily penalized teams in this regard, that hasn't been the case when Friend has officiated their matches.
Over the last year, Friend issued 19 bookings in the four games he's taken charge of for these two squads.
Let's get creative with this one.
Picks: Man City — Total Over 1.5 Cards (+155) | Watford — Over 1.5 Cards (-140)
