Brentford vs. Norwich City Odds
| Brentford Odds | -170 |
| Norwich City Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100/ -120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 11 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
In a battle of teams in the bottom half of the table, this is a crucial opportunity for both Brentford and Norwich City to add to their point totals.
For Brentford, dropping any points at home against a side that has distinguished itself as one of the worst in the Premier League would be extremely disappointing, particularly after losing three straight league games.
Norwich enters the matchup in even poorer form, having won none of its first 10 Premier League outings and drawing just two. The Canaries are in dire need of points, and if they can't get them soon, manager Daniel Farke could be in big trouble. Farke, who has been in charge of Norwich for over four years, is in one of the most perilous positions of his tenure, and he's now listed at 3-1 to be the next manager to be sacked, per European book SkyBet.
Will Farke be able to guide Norwich to a massive boost in the table on Saturday?
Brentford Looking to Regain Early Form
Though the Bees opened their Premier League campaign in impressive fashion, beating Arsenal and Wolves before a thrilling 3-3 draw against Liverpool to end September, they've gone through a recent barren run of points.
Since beating West Ham on Oct. 3, Brentford has lost games to Chelsea, Leicester City and Burnley. With that being said, that stretch has also included some awful luck for the Bees.
In that 1-0 loss to Chelsea, Brentford registered 2.16 expected goals (xG) to Chelsea's 0.31. Against Leicester, Brentford once again won the xG battle, 1.38-1.01. The third match against Burnley was a fully just result, with Brentford losing the xG total 2.95-0.95.
Nevertheless, Premier League tables don't display xG totals, and Brentford has dropped down into 12th place after the losses. The Bees are five points clear of the relegation zone and slowly putting themselves in a precarious position.
On the injury front, Kristoffer Ajer, Yoanne Wissa and Shandon Baptiste are all set to miss out on the contest.
Norwich City in Serious Need of Points
I said it last week and it remains true this week: Norwich City is in serious trouble if it can't string some results together, and that's not a bold take.
The Canaries are currently last in the Premier League, and it's no surprise given their xG numbers. Norwich has the worst xG total in the league (0.8 per game), as well as the worst xG against tally (1.82 per game).
On the road, those numbers get even worse, as Norwich produces 0.55 xG per game on the road while giving up 2.11. If those numbers don't change, the Canaries will certainly be going down, as it did in the 2019-20 season.
Last week, Norwich looked like it had a chance to capture a point at home against Leeds. The Canaries canceled out a Raphinha opener just minutes after it occurred, but a Leeds winner came another two minutes later.
Farke lamented the result as another unlucky one for his team, and in this instance, he wasn't wrong. Norwich nearly equaled Leeds' xG output, and it could be argued that the Canaries created the better chances. Only a Rodrigo shot from outside of the box separated the two teams, and it was one that should almost never be going in.
Norwich faces a steeper test away from home on Saturday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Though Norwich delivered a better performance against Leeds, it still wasn't enough to get the job done. That showing was near the ceiling of what Norwich is currently capable of, and Brentford's results have recently been far less representative of their performances.
I expect Brentford to return to its winning ways, and I'm confident that the Bees will do so in resounding fashion. They're simply a much better side, and they'll be able to show that at home.
Rather than go for a steep price of -170, I'm going to play the Asian handicap of 0.75. For those unfamiliar with the type of betting, you're essentially splitting your wager between a line of 0.5 and 1. This offers a touch more insurance and a better price.
Back the Bees on Saturday.
Pick: Brentford -0.75 (-125)
