Brighton vs. Newcastle EPL Odds, Pick, Preview: So Many Matchup Edges for the Favorite

Brighton vs. Newcastle Odds

Brighton & Hove Albion looks to remain in the top half of the Premier League table Saturday when it hosts relegation side Newcastle United.

It's been a pretty good start for manager Graham Potter's men, who have picked up 16 points from their first 10 matches and had a fantastic comeback last weekend at Anfield to draw 2-2 with Liverpool. The Seagulls are starting to  get healthy again and could be a team to make some noise in the top-six race.

In contrast, it has been a dreadful season for Newcastle, who currently has just four points in 10 matches and the worst defense in the English top flight. The new Saudi-backed ownership group is set to make a lot of changes in the upcoming January transfer window and have already made a switch at the managerial position bringing in former Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe.

As it pertains to this match, Newcastle is still in disarray and doesn't have much hope going up against one of the best league's defensive teams.

Brighton Ready to Make Positive Push

We saw the difference Yves Bissouma and Enock Mwepu playing together made for Brighton against Liverpool. The Seagulls looked much better in offensive transition and, honestly, looked a lot like the team we all fell in love with last season.

Brighton is still struggling offensively, as it's 19th in NPxG; 16th in big scoring chances; and, 10th in box entries. However, the Seagulls have been steadily improving, as they've created over 1.0 xG in their last four matches, in which three of their foes were Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.

Defensively, the Seagulls are still playing at an elite leve, as they're only allowing 1.20 NPxG per match. They're also conceding the sixth-fewest big scoring chances and one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League, ranking 3rd in PPDA. That's going to be key in this match against a Newcastle side that is one of the worst teams in England against pressure.

Brutal Defensive Form Defining Newcastle

The Newcastle defense has been horrible this season, allowing 19.89 xG in 10 matches. Making matters worse, the Magpies have conceded 20 big scoring chances and 16 shots per 90 minutes. And all of those numbers are dead last in the Premier League.

Newcastle has spent 312 minutes behind by at least one goal and when they are playing from behind they’re allowing 1.53 xG per 90 minutes. So, even though Brighton’s offense hasn’t been where it was last season, I think they’ll find it very easy to break down one of the league's worst defenses.

Offensively, they haven’t been able to do anything going forward as of late. In their last four matches, Newcastle has only created 2.40 xG against Chelsea, Tottenham, Wolves and Crystal Palace.

So, we could see a situation similar to last weekend where Newcastle plays plays two low blocks of four and prays for a couple of counter attacking opportunities. However, if Brighton scores first, the game is going to open up, which will allow the Seagulls to hit Newcastle on the counterattack often given how successful their pressing has been. 

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Brighton has so many advantages in this match, especially with Mwepu and Bissouma back in the lineup to help Brighton get back to the counter-pressing team we all saw last season.

I have Brighton’s spread projected at -0.95, so I think there's some value on the club at -1 on the spread line +120 odds on DraftKings and will make it my top selection. 

Pick: Brighton -1 (+120)