Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Burnley vs. Brentford Betting Preview (Oct. 30)

Burnley vs. Brentford Odds

With a full slate of Premier League action this weekend, my attention is on the game at the Turf Moor where Burnley takes on Brentford in a match between clubs in the bottom half of the table.

The Bees have enjoyed their EPL return by securing three wins and draws to sit in 12th place entering this fixture. In contrast, the host Clarets are is one of three winless squads this season and find themselves in the relegation zone.

In the recent history between the clubs, Burnley has won the last four meetings across all competitions, with the last contest coming while both teams were in the Championship during the 2015-16 season.

The Clarets need to start picking up points, especially at home, but Brentford has proven to be a tough out this campaign.

Burnley Set for Lengthy Relegation Battle

Manager Sean Dyche’s side has really struggled to get anything going, ranking toward the bottom of the table in expected goals (9.2), goals scored (seven) and shots per match (11.44), according to fbref.com.

Defensively, the Clarets’ numbers don’t get too much better, where their totals for xGA (14.8) and shots allowed per game (16.22) are much worse than league average.

Things would look much different if Burnley could hold onto leads, as it hasn’t won any of the five games where it scored first in the league this season. The 12 points dropped from leading positions are more than any team in the English top flight.

Summer signing Maxwel Cornet has gotten off to a fast start for his new club, leading the team with three goals in four overall appearances.

Brentford Not Looking Like Promoted Side

Brentford has come into the league this season with great confidence, securing wins over Arsenal, Wolves and West Ham United. The club also had that thrilling draw with Liverpool.

The Bees have won the xG battle in five of nine matches and their +3.1 xGDiff ranks top five in the 20-team league.

Although it might not create as many opportunities as most, manager Thomas Frank’s squad does generate impactful ones, with 13 big chances created to rank sixth in the league.

Everything for Brentford runs through star striker Ivan Toney, who has a pair of goals and assists through nine matches.

Defensively is where the Bees have really stood out this campaign, boasting xG allowed (9.2), shots allowed per match (11) and goals allowed (nine) marks that place toward the top of the table.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Oddsmakers at DraftKings are expecting a very even game, with Brentford a very slight favorite at +170 on the moneyline. The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the under having odds of -145 as of writing.

That said, I’m going to be backing the away side on this one via the Draw No Bet market at -105 odds for my best bet in this contest.

I touched on the impressive positive xGDiff for the Bees, but when you factor in the fact they’ve done that with teams like Liverpool, West Ham, Chelsea and Leicester City on their schedule, it makes it even more eye catching.

The only losses for Brentford have come against the league-leading Blues, a Europa League qualifier against the Foxes and a Brighton & Hove Albion side rated better than Burnley.

You then look at the form over the last five matches for both sides, where the visitors have a +2 xGDiff compared to the -3.1 xGDiff for the Clarets.

In the four draws for Dyche’s team this season, it lost the xG battle in all but the one against lowly Norwich City.

Burnley playing at home against a promoted club has been a spot to back the Clarets over the years, but I think all the value is with the visiting Bees.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-105)