English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Burnley vs. Chelsea (Saturday, Oct. 31)

Burnley vs. Chelsea Odds

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Burnley welcomes Chelsea to Turf Moor for Saturday's Premier League showdown.

The Clarets lost a close battle to Tottenham Hotspur at home Monday in a match that could have gone either way. Chelsea is coming off a scoreless draw against Manchester United, followed by a 4-0 victory against Krasnodar in midweek Champions League action.

Turf Moor is a tough place for visiting sides to travel to in England's top flight, which should make it interesting to see if Chelsea is up for this contest.

Burnley

The Clarets have earned just one point over their first five matches of the season. That positive result was a  scoreless draw against West Bromwich Albion.

Last week, I played Tottenham at minus-1 on the road against Burnley, which wound up a push on the wager. To be honest, Burnley probably should have gotten at least a point out of the match, having actually held an expected-goals edge of 0.95-0.80 against Spurs.

If we are talking about the run of play, Burnley had the better chances. A Harry Kane to Son Heung-min set piece off a corner lead the game's lone goal.

I actually thought Burnley looked great defensively and liked what its showed in the attacking third of the pitch.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Clarets are never going to score like gangbusters, but I left the game feeling more optimistic about their form. Burnley have gotten guys back, and it appears to me Sean Dyche has them playing more like the side we like to see.

The West Bromwich Albion road game was a positive showing as well for Burnley, where it won the xG battle with a 1.09-0.73 edge. Over their five games, the Clarets have a -0.17 xG differential/game, yet sit in the bottom three of the table.

That data suggests Burnley is closer to 13th or 14th place in the league, which seems right. I think this is a good spot for Burnley to grab at least a point, largely due to the fact it hasn't  played since Monday's home fixture.

Chelsea had to make that long trek to Russia before journeying to Turf Moor. Suffice it to say, collecting all three points in this spot with that tough schedule would be tough for any club. After a 4-0 win over Krasnodar, the Blues could also come into this game a little overconfident and look past Burnley.

Chelsea

It's been a pretty average start to Chelsea's season thus far. Starting 2-1-3 over the first six games probably isn't what Frank Lampard had in mind.

However, I do think it is pretty understandable. The Blues added multiple new players in the offseason, most of whom are new to the league.

Historically, it can take players a bit to adjust to the physicality and intensity of the EPL relative to other global leagues. You saw some of the Blues' upside in that win over Krasnodar.

Chelsea's xG winning margin was still impressive at 2.54-0.69 on the road in Russia. In contrast to that performance was its scoreless draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford and a home match against Sevilla.

I would try to look past those results, as both sides were content with a draw.

Edouard Mendy was a big upgrade in goal for Chelsea and it has showed, which is exciting for Chelsea fans.

Over those first six games, the Blues have a +0.35 xG differential, which is solid, but should be higher if they are to challenge for Top 4 on the table. I mentioned how I thought this wasn't a great spot for Chelsea, but I wanted to mention one other tactical thing.

The Blues have struggled a bit playing through the midfield, having depended on speed and skill on the outside to generate goals. That could set things up well defensively for Burnley, which stifled a similar attack very well last week.

For Chelsea to break down Burnley, I think it will take some special plays from one of their new players or United States international Christian Pulisic. The Blues just aren't playing well together as a team at the moment, which has me believing they could struggle in this Turf Moor showdown.

Betting Analysis

I'm tempted to play Burnley on the moneyline at +500, but will be responsible instead. That said, back Burnley at +1 (-109) as your top play. I would play the Clarets all the way up to -120 on the spread line.

I expect Burnley to pick up a point here, and really think it's a live dog. Also, I like the alternative total of under 3 goals at -130. It's a little pricey, but I see a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline here.

Picks: Burnley +1 (-109) | Total Under 3 Goals (-130)

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