Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chelsea vs. Liverpool (Sept. 20)

Premier League: Chelsea vs. Liverpool Odds

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The Premier League's match of the week will pit new-look Chelsea against defending champions, Liverpool.

Chelsea was perhaps the busiest team in the world in the transfer market this offseason, bringing in four high quality players for a combined $246 million.

Liverpool weren't their usual dominant selves after the restart, but it didn't matter. They had the Premier League title wrapped up with nine matches to go.

Both squads are title contenders and favorites to finish in the top four. So, this should be a fantastic match between two of this biggest clubs in England.

Chelsea

Gone are the days where we thought Chelsea was just an academy club. They used the money the got from selling Eden Hazard last summer to bring in Timo Werner (RB Leipzig), Hakim Zyiech (Ajax), Ben Chilwell (Leicester) and Kai Havertz (Leverkusen). All four are incredible young talents that have the potential to bolster Chelsea to the same level as Man City and Liverpool.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Surprisingly Chelsea had pretty much the same expected goal differential (+35.14) as Liverpool (+35.62) last season. Their offense was absolutely fantastic after the restart, averaging 2.24 xG per match. That number should only increase with the additions they made over the offseason.

Chelsea was really unlucky at Stamford Bridge last season. They accumulated 44.95 expected points at home, which was significantly less than their actual point total of 36. The Blues also had the best home defensive record in the league last year, allowing only 0.67 xG per match. They'll have a stern test against Liverpool's front three, but I think they'll be up to the task on Sunday.

Liverpool

The Premier League Champions stumbled after the hiatus. The Reds were only able to take 17 of a possible 27 points and accumulated +3.29 xGD, which was fifth-best in the Premier League during Project Restart.

The Reds are big time regression candidates, especially in front of net. Liverpool may have scored 85 goals last season, but their expected goals total was only at 75.19. They did just add Thiago for Bayern Munich to their midfield, which should help with some of that regression. However, he's unlikely to play on Sunday.

Projections and Pick

Liverpool may be the defending champions, but I think Chelsea are just as good right now.

These two teams squared off at Anfield two months ago, with Liverpool winning 5-3. However, Chelsea won the expected goals battle 2.59 to 2.03, so I expect them to get at least a draw on Sunday.

I have Chelsea projected as favorites in this match, so I think there is plenty of value on their spread of +0.5 at -139. I would play that number up to -155.

Pick: Chelsea +0.5 (-139)

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