Chelsea vs. Southampton Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions for EPL Saturday (Oct. 17)

Chelsea vs. Southampton Odds

Odds as of 11 p.m. ET on Thursday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Matchday 5 of the Premier League season presents a very interesting matchup at Stamford Bridge between a side full of attacking talent looking for a breakout performance and a club with one of Europe’s hottest goal scorers.

Chelsea hosts a well-organized Southampton team that is surely going to be difficult to break down. Let’s see where the value in this one lies.

Chelsea

Chelsea supporters will have loved the sight of Kai Havertz and Timo Werner on the scoresheet for Germany in their UEFA Nations League game on Tuesday against Switzerland. The Blues will be hoping it’s a sign of things to come for the young pair at the club level, with the pair yet to net for their new club in the Premier League.

The Blues are off to an eventful start to the new season, sitting seventh on seven points and coming off a 4-0 thrashing of Crystal Palace. That win comes after a 3-3 draw against West Brom that saw Chelsea facing a three-goal deficit at halftime.

The most encouraging aspect of the performance against Palace will be that Chelsea’s defense dominated, allowing an incredible 0.10 xGA. In their six-goal draw with West Brom, the Blues only allowed 0.91 xGA, but a pair of errors from veteran center back Thiago Silva gave the Baggies early lifelines.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Goals from the likes of Havertz and Werner would surely steal the headlines, but another solid defensive performance is what will give supporters the most reason for optimism this season. After an incredible spending spree, a step forward from Chelsea’s defense will be the biggest factor in whether it moves up from a fourth-place finish last season. The latest signs are encouraging.

Southampton

Following losses to Crystal Palace and Tottenham in its first two league matches, Southampton bounced back well with a pair of shutout wins over Burnley and West Brom. The Saints have scored only five goals through four games — three from Danny Ings, who is coming off a 22-goal campaign in the 2019-20 season — and conceded six, five of which came against Tottenham.

In their 5-2 defeat to Spurs, Southampton was level in xG with the visitors at 2.28-2.28. Then, in wins over a pair of potential relegation-threatened sides, the Saints allowed a combined 0.51 xGA.

With an organized defense under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, Southampton is an especially tricky fixture away from home. The Saints were third in the Premier League away table last season, finishing on 31 points in 19 matches away from home and trailing only Liverpool and Manchester City.

Southampton will face its toughest test of the season against a talented Chelsea side that spent over 200 million euro on incoming transfers for the new season.

Chelsea-Southampton Pick

Chelsea is -205 to win this match, which doesn’t give the bettor great value, especially against a team that has proven to be difficult to play against even at home. It’s tough to back Southampton at +525 for an outright win, as well.

The best value seems to be Chelsea -1.5 at +135. The Blues feature plenty of pace moving forward with the likes of Havertz, Werner, Tammy Abraham and either Callum Hudson-Odoi or Christian Pulisic on the right wing. In that loss to Tottenham, Southampton was done in by Son Heung-Min’s pace en route to a four-goal solo performance.

I’d back the Blues’ pricey attack to get going against an opponent that won’t make it easy for them. Werner to score first is also worth a shout at +360.

The Pick: Chelsea -1.5 at +135