Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Everton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, Oct. 3)

Premier League: Everton vs. Brighton Odds

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Everton have rightfully earned a ton of praise for its 3-0-0 start to the 2020/21 Premier League season. Not only are the results impressive, but the Toffees look a transformed team. Manager Carlo Ancelotti's new signings, most notably James Rodriguez, have raised the ceiling at Goodison Park.

If not for a rash of bad luck, Brighton & Hove Albion would be in the same conversation as the Blues. That may sound a bit dramatic since the Seagulls have won once and lost twice to open their league campaign, but a deeper look at Brighton reveals a potential Premier League sleeper. Bettors take notice.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Everton

It's hard to find many faults with how Everton started the season, though it did benefit from a soft handball call in its latest win, a 2-1 victory at Crystal Palace. Still, it was a third-straight deserved win for the Toffees, as they created 1.7 expected goals (not including the penalty kick) and held Crystal Palace to just 0.7 xG.

In total, Everton have generated 4.4 xG from open play while conceding just 1.02. A lot of column inches have been used on the Blues' new-look attack, but the defense has been just as dynamic.

Everton has allowed just one goal on 14 shots from open play, and none of its opponents have been able to generate more than 1.0 xG during this new season. It's only been three games, but considering their roster upgrades and their manager, I think it'd be wise to consider the Blues a threat to crack the top six, and maybe even the top four.

Unfortunately for the Toffees, they will be dealing with some injury problems come Saturday. Richarlison, who has thrived on Everton's left wing to start the season, hurt his ankle in a mid-week Carabao Cup victory. The Toffees will also be without all-action midfielder Allan.

It's not an out-and-out disaster if the Brazilian pair can't go because Everton have enough depth to cover them, but both Richarlison and Allan have played huge roles in Everton's hot start.

Brighton & Hove Albion

It's still early doors, but I think bettors will learn to love Brighton & Hove Albion this season. The Seagulls have served up a lot of pain to their backers so far, but misery often breeds opportunity in betting.

Brighton put together one of the best performances of the entire weekend against Manchester United in its last league outing. The Seagulls lost the game, 3-2, but you'll be hard-pressed to find a more unlucky result this season. Not only did Brighton hit the post five times and out-attempt United, 18-7, it also found a way to lose a game in which it scored a 94th-minute equalizer. In fact, United's 99th-minute, game-winning penalty kick came after the referee blew his final whistle and was a result of the controversial new interpretation of the handball rule.

That result was Brighton's second hard-luck loss of the season. The Seagulls opened the season with a 3-1 defeat against Chelsea in which they won the xG battle, 1.44 to 1.27.

According to Understat, Brighton has accumulated 6.33 expected points through their first three games. In reality, they have 3 points thanks to a dominant 3-0 win on the road over Newcastle.

Everton vs. Brighton Betting Pick

Everton have won their first three games of the season. Brighton have dropped two of three games. Neither side has played a bad game yet. A three-game sample size should be handled with care, but there's a lot to like about both sides moving forward.

For Saturday, the value is with the underdog. An Everton victory is the most likely result, but the odds on Brighton are high enough to take a shot on the outright upset. At +390 the Seagulls have an implied win probability of 20.4%. Given its current form, I think Brighton's chances are better than that and would play them at +375 or better. And even if Brighton come up short on Saturday, they have the look of a disrupter this season and could be a worthwhile investment throughout the season — especially at prices like this.

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