Everton vs. Spurs Odds
| Everton Odds | +215 |
| Spurs Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The Antonio Conte era at Tottenham Hotspur begins Sunday as his club visits Everton in a Premier League battle at Goodison Park.
Spurs fired manager Nuno Espirito Santo this past Monday following a 3-0 home to Manchester United and hired Conte the next day.
Tottenham beat Vitesse in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, but this will be the first true test for the new manager. Spurs have looked dreadful going forward, scoring just nine goals in the first 10 league matches.
Everton have lost two consecutive matches in the league for the first time all season, a sign of regression given the mounting injury list and subsequent slide down the EPL table.
Everton's Defensive Decline Should Give Pause
Everton defied the expected narratives and conventional wisdom when they maintained solid performances after losing multiple key players to injury in September. For most of September and October, the Toffees impressed with four wins, two draws and a loss in their first seven league matches.
The 1-1 draw with Manchester United is looking less and less impressive by the week, though, and Everton have mostly benefitted from a relatively easy schedule of opponents. They've only played two games against teams projected to finish in the top eight of the table — the United draw and a 1-0 defeat to West Ham United.
Despite the weak schedule, Everton's defensive metrics are in decline. They rank 19th in crosses allowed into the area, ninth in box entries and 16th in big-scoring chances allowed.
The sudden drop-off defensively in games against West Ham, Watford and Wolves coincides with an injury to top centerback Yerry Mina. Even though Lucas Digne is expected back for this match at left back, he'll be dealing with Spurs overloads on the right wing for large parts of the match.
Mina has been ruled out and Everton caught Spurs at the worst time — in the middle of an expected new manager bounce as Conte joins the club.
Everton maintained solid defensive numbers by putting on an effective press, but I'm expecting Tottenham to be much better equipped for Everton's pressing with Conte, an elite tactician, in charge.
Spurs have struggled to break through pressure for most of the year but going forward, I'd expect them to be much more press resistant.
How Much Will Conte Improve Spurs?
The Tottenham statistical profile under Espirito Santo is extremely unimpressive. Spurs were just 19th in shots per 90 minutes; 17th in xG per 90; and, 15th in penalty area entries.
One major issue for Spurs is that the attacks would so often break down once in the opposition half, as they were fifth in getting the ball across the halfway line but just 15th in getting into the box for shots and chances. Conte has only had a few training sessions, but the improvement was notable, even against Vitesse.
Spurs will switch to a 3-5-2 formation — a Conte specialty — to help aid ball progression using two attacking fullbacks in Sergio Reguilon and Emerson Royal. It remains to be seen if Harry Kane is rejuvenated under Conte or is truly in a decline year, but if Kane is going to have any juice at all, we're likely to see it in the early stages of Conte, especially in this match.
Tanguy Ndombele and Giovani Lo Celso didn't play against Vitesse, so I'd expect both to start as the two best ball progressors for Tottenham. Given the Everton defensive situation without Yerry Mina and down fullbacks, Spurs should be able to exploit Everton’s defense and create plenty of chances in and around the box.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Spurs didn't look comfortable at all in the 3-5-2 formation defensively Thursday against Vitesse, and they still have significant deficiencies in set piece defending that could cost them in this game.
They've conceded more big-scoring chances than almost every non-relegation level side in the league, and I'm hesitant to back Tottenham's defense until reinforcements come in January or Conte shows Spurs will be more solid at the back.
However, Spurs will not continue to be the terrible attacking side they were under Espirito Santo. Conte is likely to rejuvenate the attack quickly by improving ball progression into the penalty area and providing more drilled attacking routines, similar to how Mauricio Pochettino did for years before he was fired in October 2019.
Everton's poor defensive numbers against crosses make for danger against a Conte side, and the 6.3 total xGA allowed in the last three matches don't offer much optimism for the Toffees' defense without Mina.
I'm expecting this game to be pretty open, and Spurs to score multiple games in Conte's EPL debut with his new club.
Pick: Tottenham — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+115)
