Leeds vs. Arsenal Odds
| Leeds Odds | +360 |
| Arsenal Odds | -135 |
| Draw | +295 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In one of only two Premier League fixtures on the Saturday card, Arsenal travels to Elland Road to battle Leeds United, who are looking to build a cushion from the relegation zone.
The midweek fixtures brought these sides opposite fortunes, with the Gunners picking up a statement home win against West Ham United to move into the top four in the table. As for the Peacocks, they traveled to Etihad Stadium and were blown out, 7-0, by league leader Manchester City.
In general, both squads are going in opposite directions as well. Arsenal has won six of their last nine EPL fixtures, while Leeds has only picked up all three points once in their last seven games to go along with three draws and three losses.
Last season’s meeting at Elland Road produced a 0-0 draw, but it was the hosts who won the expected-goals battle by a 2.5-0.9 margin.
Key Absences Still Hurting Leeds
If manager Marcelo Bielsa hopes to take points, he’ll have to do it without a number of key players.
The injury list continues to grow for Leeds, as there’s a chance they'll be without the following players: Daniel James, Jamie Shackleton, Patrick Bamford, Junior Firpo, Kalvin Phillips, Liam Cooper, Rodrigo Moreno and Pascal Struijk.
However, even with those absences, there are a few positives worth noting when it comes to the Peacocks. The first is that they’re due for some positive home regression on the offensive side. Through eight home matches, Leeds has generated nine home goals on 12 expected, per fbref.com. Furthermore, the Peacocks have produced above-average xG/90 metrics in six consecutive home contests.
Additionally, Leeds has quietly been a very good home team. The Peacocks are unbeaten in the last five home fixtures (two wins, three draws) and won all five of those fixtures when it comes to expected goals. Their defense has also held up well in those matches, conceding only four goals on 4.3 xG in the process.
Plus, the Peacocks' offense has been somewhat historically reliable at Elland Road. Including their 19 home matches last season, Leeds has now produced one xG in 22 of their last 27 on home soil.
Powerful Arsenal Not Overly Strong on Road
Even though Arsenal finds itself in a top-four position, its road record is quite concerning to say the least.
Through their first eight road fixtures, the Gunners possess the third-worst road xGDiff and have been fully deserving of every goal conceded (16 goals against on 16.2 expected), per fbref.com.
Plus, it’s not as if their road record is being skewed by 4-0 and 5-0 blowouts against Liverpool and Manchester City, respectively. In considering its remaining six road fixtures, bettors will find that Arsenal haven’t won a single match on xG despite picking up points in three of them.
Additionally, the recent results have seen some regression come, as manager Mikel Arteta’s squad has lost three in a row on the road by a combined margin of 9-3 (6.95-2.66 xG margin) during that stretch.
The metrics have backed up those defensive performances, as Arsenal have conceded below-average shot-creating metrics in two of their last three games and below-average goal-creating actions in three in a row.
On the offensive side, Arsenal’s road metrics aren’t much better. The Gunners have posted below-average shots in five of eight matches and below-average shots on target in six of eight affairs, per fbref.com.
That said, they’ve also improved as of late, generating at least one xG in their last two road fixtures against Everton and Manchester United.
Betting Analysis & Pick
If Leeds was slightly healthier, I believe this would be a good spot to back the club at home. However, I can’t get behind them without all those key players.
Additionally, I can’t back Arsenal due to their concerning road record, especially if you’re asking me to lay a price on their moneyline.
That said, I do see some value on the total in this match. In 17 matches this season, Leeds have only held two teams — Watford and Norwich City — under 1.0 expected goal. Additionally, in eight games against teams that sit above Leeds in the xG per 90-minutes table, Bielsa’s side has conceded at least twice & at least 1.5 xGA in six contests, according to fbref.com.
For that reason, I’m inclined to believe Arsenal are capable of grabbing one-two goals on the road, especially against a Leeds side that ranks 18th overall in xGA/90 minutes.
However, only one side — Liverpool – has blanked Leeds at home this season. Combine that with their aforementioned xG record at home and I’m confident Leeds can score in this matchup.
Pick: Same Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-110)
