Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Leicester City vs. Tottenham Preview (July 19)

Leicester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur Odds

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Leicester City visits Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday with European places fully up for grabs. The Foxes sit in fourth place, clinging to the final Champions League place, while Spurs sit in seventh, looking to breach into the top six and guarantee themselves Europa League football when the new season kicks off in less than two months.

While the performances haven’t exactly matched up, Spurs’ recent results have actually been fairly solid. In seven matches since the restart, only Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea have taken more points than Spurs’ 14.

Since getting thrashed at Sheffield United, Spurs notched a critical and deserved win last Sunday over Arsenal in the North London Derby, and followed it up with another solid attacking performance and a 3-1 win at Newcastle on Wednesday. It was the first PL match all season where Spurs won by multiple goals on the road.

Leicester have been the victims of both injuries and expected goals’ regression for the better part of the second half of the season. Since the restart, the Foxes sit 12th in the actual table with nine points, but fourth in the expected goal difference table.

Injuries to fullbacks Ben Chillwell and Ricardo Pereira, along with attacking midfielder James Maddison and the suspension of center back Çağlar Söyüncü has left Leicester City limping to the finish line and in desperate need of points entering the final two matches of the season against Spurs and Manchester United.

After a 4-1 collapse at Bournemouth where the Foxes finished with 10 men, Leicester rebounded at home on Thursday, rolling over Sheffield United in a 2-0, must-win performance.

The resurgence of Tottenham striker Harry Kane – who looked dead on his feet in back-to-back matches against Everton and Bournemouth – is the main reason why Tottenham’s attacking numbers have seen such a significant uptick.

Since Kane has been able to run in behind, get touches on the ball in the box, and looks healthy, the Spurs attack has transformed from a side who managed less than one xG combined in two matches vs Everton and Bournemouth into one that has now posted 1.82 vs. Arsenal and 1.75 vs. Newcastle.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Kane’s 0.68 xG/90 since the restart of the Premier League in June is a sign that he’s feeling healthy and getting into good scoring positions again. He ranks fourth in total xG created since the resumption and if Spurs are going to create big scoring chances, he’s likely to be on the end of them.

One concerning trend for Leicester City — who will be without three of its top four defenders — is its recent defensive issues on its travels. The Foxes haven’t won any of four road games since the restart, drawing two and losing two. They’ve allowed at least 1.2 xG in every away match since the restart, and generated at least one xG in attack.

Since Spurs aren’t particularly a good defensive side either, I’ll back over 2.5 goals in this match. The two teams have combined to overperform their season-long xGA numbers by a combined 16 goals.