Liverpool vs. Aston Villa, Odds
| Liverpool odds | -335 [BET NOW] |
| Aston Villa odds | +850 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +475 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3 (-134/+108) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports |
Odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
The newly crowned Premier League champions looked, for lack of a better word, hungover against Manchester City on Thursday.
With the title officially coming home to Merseyside, Jurgen Klopp now has a lot of options at his disposal when deciding his starting XI. Based on the recent quotes from Klopp, it seems there will not be wholesale changes to the lineup, but some young players could be featured.
Aston Villa on the other hand, is fighting for it's Premier League life. The Lions are one point from safety and desperately need points wherever they can get them.
Liverpool
Even if Klopp decides to feature a few young players, Liverpool is deep with young talent and should have no problem breaking down Aston Villa's defense.
The Reds are a perfect 16-0-0 at home this season and boast a +23.96 expected goal differential. As of late, they've been on fire offensively at Anfield, scoring 2.67 expected goals per match in their last six matches.
Jurgen Klopp’s defense, which is led by Virgil van Dijk, has been terrific all season long. Van Dijk has completely revitalized Liverpool’s defense since he joined the Merseyside club two seasons ago.
Liverpool’s defense only concedes 1.00 expected goals per match and just 0.86 xG against at home this season. As long as Liverpool doesn't make whole sale changes, I think Reds should have no problem against the Premier League's worst defense.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Aston Villa
It's desperation time for the Lions, who need results immediately if the want to avoid falling back in the Championship. The Lions have been much improved since the Premier returned from the break, winning the expected goals battle in all four of their matches.
Before the break, Aston Villa was the worst defensive team in the Premier League, conceding 2.18 expected goals per game. However, since the break, the Lions have only conceded 0.80 xG per game.
Even though the Lions have improved defensively, they've struggled mightily against the top half of the table. In 17 matches versus the top ten teams, Aston Villa is allowing a whopping 2.44 expected goals per game.
The Lions have also been in a terrible run of form dating all the back to January. They've lost six of their last eight games and have been outscored 14 to 5. The Lions will have to keep up their improved defensive play going if they want to hang with the Premier League champions.
Analysis
Since the quotes from Jurgen Klopp indicate Liverpool will not be making whole sale changes to their starting XI, I am going to handicap this match as if Liverpool were at full strength. Based on my model, I think Liverpool's current line is too low:
- Liverpool projected odds: -489 (83.01% win probability)
- Aston Villa projected odds: +1460 (6.41% win probability)
- Draw projected odds: +845 (10.58% win probability)
- Liverpool projected xG: 3.10
- Aston Villa projected xG: 0.72
There is no doubt the defeat to Man City left a sour taste in Liverpool's mouth. I think the Reds will come out motivated and will have no trouble breaking down Aston Villa's defense. Therefore, I am going to back the Reds to win by multiple goals.
