Liverpool vs. Brighton Odds, Betting Pick: Underdogs Can Keep it Close

Liverpool vs. Brighton Odds

Liverpool look to keep pace in the Premier League title race Saturday when they host Brighton & Hove Albion.

Liverpool look like the best team on the planet right now after embarrassing Manchester United 5-0 at Old Trafford last weekend. The Reds are in an interesting stretch with a Champions League encounter against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday and then a trip to West Ham next weekend.

With Chelsea and Manchester City also facing inferior opponents this weekend, it's crucial that Liverpool get all three points at home.

Brighton did not pass their first big test of the season last weekend, getting thoroughly dominated in a 4-1 home defeat against City. That result dropped the Seagulls out of the top four, so snatching a result at Anfield would be a huge boost.

Liverpool Enters Meeting With Red-Hot Attack

As good as Liverpool have played of late, I think they’re overvalued in this match.

In attack, the Reds are incredible right now, averaging 2.77 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) and are first in the Premier League in every single offensive metric. Mohamed Salah looks like the best player in the world with 10 goals and a rate of 0.83 xG per 90 minutes.

There are a few areas where I think Brighton could give Liverpool some trouble, though.

Liverpool is really thin in the midfield right now. James Milner, Thiago and Naby Kieta are all out for this match, while Fabinho is questionable.

So who is Liverpool going to play in the midfield next to Jordan Henderson? Also, Liverpool is only the 12th best side against pressure this season and Brighton is one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League, ranking third in pressure success rate. 

Finally, Liverpool's defense is due for some negative regression. The Reds have conceded six goals this season off of 9.54 xG, also giving up eight big-scoring chances this season.

Brighton's Pressing Provides Boost vs. Liverpool

Brighton's offensive numbers are not where they were last season. The Seagulls are averaging only 0.91 NPxG per match, have only created five big-scoring chances and are 13th in shots per 90 minutes, per FBref.com. 

The Seagulls defense is still really good, despite selling Ben White to Arsenal over the summer. Brighton are only allowing 1.24 NPxG per match and are fourth in big scoring chances allowed.

Brighton will be able to handle Liverpool’s high press because they’re fourth in Offensive PPDA and third in pressure success rate allowed. To beat Liverpool you almost have to beat them at their own game, and Brighton is a team that’s capable of that, as I mentioned above.

The Seagulls will get a big boost with the return of midfielder Yves Bissouma, who made an appearance on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. Bissouma is a huge player for Brighton, registering the fifth most successful pressures last season in the Premier League. Having him alongside Enock Mwepu, who is another fantastic pressing midfielder, will give Brighton an advantage against Liverpool's thin midfield.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Projection wise, I only have Liverpool projected at -203 and their spread at -1.16, so I think there is some value on Brighton's spread of +2 at -135 odds. 

Pick: Brighton +2 (-135)