Manchester City vs. Newcastle Odds
| Manchester City odds | -1000 [BET NOW] |
| Newcastle odds | +2200 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +950 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-109/-114) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds as of Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
We are the point in the Premier League season where certain matchups mean nothing for either side. Wednesday’s meeting between Manchester City and Newcastle is one of those matches.
Manchester City is going to finish in second place and have nothing left to play for in Premier League. The Citizens are still alive in this year’s Champions League, which will continue in August, so they will be using these matches to fine tune their squad.
Newcastle has almost officially secured another season in the Premier League and will be looking to keep their good run of form going since the return from break.
Manchester City
The Citizens were extremely unlucky to lose to 1-0 at Southampton on Sunday. The expected goals report showed they generated 3.53 expected goals compared to Southampton's 0.70, which means some positive regression may be coming for the Citizens in this match.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Manchester City is the best offense in the Premier League, by a long shot. The Citizens score on average 2.58 xG per match and only allow 1.03 xG per match. They've also been scorching hot at the Etihad as of late winning seven of their last eight matches by a combined score of 23 to 4. In fact, they haven't conceded a goal at home since Jan. 18.
The Citizens are also no stranger to running up the score when they get ahead. Nine of their 21 wins this season have come by three goals or more. After the disappointing loss to Southampton, I think we will see the Citizens rebound in style with a blow out win.
Newcastle
The Magpies have been one of the surprise teams since the restart, earning eight of a possible 12 points in their past four matches. Newcastle has been a bit fortune though, as they only have +0.23 expected goal differential in those matches. But good fortune has been the story of the Magpies' year.
Newcastle really deserves to be lower in the table than where they currently sit. Based on expected points, the Magpies are 14.58 points higher in the table than where they should be (43 actual vs. 28.23 xPoints). Much of the reason for the variance is due their good fortune defensively.
On average, Newcastle concede 1.36 goals per match, which is significantly lower than their 1.74 xG allowed per match. Defensive regression will be coming for some point for Newcastle and it may just happen playing against the best offense in the Premier League.
Analysis
I don't see this game going anyway other than a Man City blow out. Based on my model, I have Manchester City winning on average by 2.62 expected goals. Since Man City -3 is offering a good price of +148, I am going to take the Citizens to win this game in a rout.
- Manchester City projected odds: -705 (87.58% win probability)
- Newcastle projected odds: +2694 (3.58% win probability)
- Draw projected odds: +1031 (8.84% win probability)
- Manchester City projected xG: 3.16
- Newcastle projected xG: 0.54
