Manchester City at Southampton
| Manchester City odds | -315 [BET NOW] |
| Southampton odds | +800 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +475 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3 (-121/-103) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Sunday at 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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We've reached the point in the Premier League season where certain matchups mean nothing for either side. Sunday's match between Southampton and Manchester City is one of those games.
Southampton have reached the coveted 40-point mark, which historically guarantees safety from relegation.
Manchester City are all but certain to finish in second place, but they are facing a two-year ban from Champions League for allegedly violating FIFA's Financial Fair Play rules. City are still alive in this year's Champions League, which will continue in August, but there's nothing left for them to strive for in the Premier League in 2019-20.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Southampton
With just 14 points from 16 matches, Southampton have the worst home record in the Premier League this season. Going back to before the break Southampton have lost four of their last five matches at St. Mary's Stadium, though their xG differential in those matches is only -3.19 so they are a bit unlucky not to have collected a few more points in those games.
The Saints are led by Danny Ings up top and the veteran striker has flourished in his first season on the South Coast. Ings has bagged 18 goals in 32 appearances and is creating 0.47 xG per 90 minutes.
Southampton matches average 2.93 total expected goals per match, so it's easy to why 62% of their matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals.
Manchester City
The Citizens deserved better from this season. Based on expected points, Man City should have won the Premier League. Pep Guardiola's team has amassed 71.54 xPoints in 32 games, which is 7.20 xPoints ahead of Liverpool.
City are creating 2.56 expected goals per match, which is their best mark in five years. Like Southampton, matches featuring Manchester City feature plenty of scoring chances. Overall, City average 3.56 total xG per match but that number has ticked up to 3.74 in their last four matches.
Man City have surprisingly struggled on the road lately. The Cityzens have lost three of their last four away matches and have only scored two goals in the process.
Be sure to check in on Manchester City's lineup before placing a bet on this game as there is a chance that Guardiola rests some of his players since there's nothing on the line.
Previous Meeting
Manchester City came from behind to beat Southampton, 2-1, in the reverse fixture back in November. The Citizens completely dominated the match creating 18 chances inside the penalty area. Based on the expected goals report, Man City should have won the match 4-1.
Analysis
My model shows some value on Southampton, but based on their current home form I cannot trust them to get the job done. I do, however, think there's value backing the Over 3.5 at plus-money.
- Southampton projected odds: +424 (19.08% win probability)
- Manchester City projected odds: -168 (62.70%)
- Draw projected odds: +449 (18.22%)
- Southampton projected xG: 1.24
- Manchester City projected xG: 2.45
