Premier League Betting Odds & Picks (Thursday, July 9): Manchester United vs. Aston Villa Predictions

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa Odds

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There’s no team in the Premier League in better form since the restart than Manchester United, who have won three and drawn one in their first four matches. The partnership of Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba in the midfield along with an in-form front three has led to plenty of goals and wins for the Red Devils as they travel to struggling Aston Villa on Thursday.

Villa enters this match on 27 points, sitting in 18th, four points from safety. With just five matches to play, Aston Villa need to put up at least two, maybe three wins if they want to remain in the Premier League next year. In five matches since the restart, the Lions have lost three and drawn two, but they’ve put up some decent performances and have been a bit unfortunate to not see any results.

Villa outplayed both Sheffield United and Chelsea for large portions of the first two matches of the return, but poor finishing led to just one goal and one point out of a possible six. They dominated most of the play against Newcastle in a 1-1 draw, and then lost back-to-back games to Wolves and Liverpool after stifling both attacks for the majority of the match. Even though they’ve taken just two points, their expected points is 4.9 from those matches.

On the opposite end, no attacking unit is in better form than Manchester United. The front three of Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood and Anthony Martial have provided pace and quality finishing. With the creativity of Fernandes and Pogba, the Red Devils have scored 11 goals in three matches on 6.68 xG.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

While the play has been really good, the finishing has been unsustainably great. Mason Greenwood now has eight Premier League goals this season on 2.73 xG, a historically efficient finishing return. United have also tied the Premier League record for most penalties drawn in one season (12).

While it may be true that United is in great form, the market has overreacted significantly to their good form and that creates value on an underrated Aston Villa side.

Manchester United have also struggled in one key area defensively that the Lions may be able to exploit: corners. United have conceded eight goals from corners this year, and thanks to the usually excellent delivery from Jack Grealish, Villa have scored seven goals off corners.

It will probably only take one goal for Villa to get inside the spread here. The Red Devils have also struggled away from Old Trafford this season, where they rank ninth in the Premier League with 20 points and an even goal difference.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high play here, where the market is overreacting and overvaluing a mediocre road team playing against a desperate Villa side. I don’t know if the Lions will manage a point from this match, but I expect them to keep it competitive.