Newcastle vs. Man City Odds
| Newcastle Odds | +1600 |
| Man City Odds | -700 |
| Draw | +800 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+105 / -130) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Newcastle United is searching for a season-defining win when it welcomes Premier League leader Manchester City to St. James’ Park on Sunday.
The hosts have just one win this season and enter the game in the relegation zone in 19th. Meanwhile, City has won 13 of 17 matches in the EPL to sit at the top of the table.
Looking at the history between the two sides, the Magpies only have one victory in the last 13 home league games against the Citizens, but they’ll be desperate to buck that trend as they fight for survival.
Newcastle Has Improved Slightly Under Howe
Manager Eddie Howe has been the boss for the last six matches for Newcastle, which have resulted in five points from the win over Burnley and draws against Brentford and Norwich.
Over that span, the Magpies have posted a -4.6 expected goals difference on 1.617 xG allowed per match, per fbref.com.
The expected goal allowed average mark is an improvement from before Howe took over (1.827), but it still hasn’t resulted in as many points as he'd like in the Premier League.
With the January transfer window opening soon, you have to wonder how the current players are feeling about their chances of a strong future at Newcastle with all of the rumors swirling of its wealthy owners looking to spend big immediately to repair the squad.
Guardiola's Man City Enjoying Stellar Season
For all of the negativity around Newcastle, there are even more things to be positive about with Man City this season.
Manager Pep Guardiola’s team is either first or second in the EPL in multiple attacking categories, including expected goals (40.1), shots per 90 minutes (19.35) and big scoring chances created (34).
Portuguese playmaker Bernardo Silva, who leads the Cityzens with seven league goals, is leading the way with one of his best campaigns since coming to England.
The defensive metrics are even better for City, as it owns the best marks in the Premier League in expected goals allowed per match (0.61), opponents’ shots per 90 minutes (6.53) and big scoring chances surrendered (seven).
Betting Analysis & Pick
Looking at the odds over at PointsBet, the league leaders are the clear favorites at -667 on the moneyline, with the total posted at 3.5.
The big question is whether you think Newcastle will score. I don’t, which is why my best bet is to take Man City to Win to Nil at -125.
That same bet has cashed in nine of City’s 13 Premier League victories this season. The wins in which Guardiola’s squad did allow a goal, the average xG for its opponents in those games was a minuscule 0.775.
As for Newcastle, it has averaged just 0.85 expected goals in the six games since Howe took over. The Magpies also rank near the bottom of the EPL in non-penalty expected goals (14.5) and big scoring chances (11) on the season.
You can also look at how Howe’s team performed against similar opposition in Liverpool and Chelsea, against whom Newcastle posted a combined 0.3 expected goals.
I’m never going to be able to back City at this big of a price on the moneyline or spread, but I think this is a great way to back it for another victory.
Pick: Manchester City — Win to Nil (-125)
