Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Newcastle vs. Burnley (Saturday, Oct. 3)

Premier League: Burnley at Newcastle Odds

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Nothing says "The Beautiful Game" quite like a match between Sean Dyche's Burnley and Steve Bruce's Newcastle on a fall evening in Northeast England.

It doesn't project to be a mouth-watering match, but both of these teams are expected to be in the relegation scrap in 2020-21, so these are three important points up for grabs at St. James' Park.

Burnley

Burnley have lost both matches to start 2020-21, but they are a bit unfortunate to not have at least a point in the bank.

The Clarets were beaten 4-2 by Leicester City in their season opener, but the expected goals showed that Burnley were arguably the better team. Per Understat, the Clarets won the expected goals battle, 1.52 to 0.99, against the Foxes and the shots on target were just about even. Burnley don't have a ton of finishing talent so they'll lose games like that over the course of a season, but it was still a strong effort against a good team despite the scoreline.

Burnley's 1-0 loss to Southampton was much more of a "Burnley Game" as the Clarets and Saints combined for a total of 1.06 expected goals and three shots on target.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

We know what the game-script looks like for Burnley. No manager in the Premier League gets more out of less than Sean Dyche. The Scottish manager always has Burnley organized on matchday and, despite their lack of creative talent, they are a tough team to beat.

In fact, the Clarets lost only two of their last 16 games in 2019-20 and one of those defeats came against Man City. The Clarets played seven other top-10 teams in that run, winning two and drawing five. Like I said, hard to beat.

Newcastle United

Newcastle United are off to a 1-1-1 start in 2020-21 but even their manager knows they are quite lucky not to be 1-2.

After an impressive win over a downtrodden West Ham side in the opener, Newcastle have turned in a pair of meager performances against Brighton and Tottenham. Newcastle allowed 4.31 expected goals from open play in those two games and were only able to muster a total of 0.70 xG for themselves.

Newcastle finished 2019-20 in 12th place on 44 points, but they were very fortunate to end up in a mid-table spot. Not only did Steve Bruce’s side finish with a -20 goal differential, but Newcastle also finished with the second-worst xG differential in the Premier League last season.

The Magpies have more attacking and play-making talent compared to Burnley but this isn't a team that you'd expect to be on the front-foot against the well-organized Clarets. Newcastle could be without one of their best offensive players, Allan Saint-Maximin, so keep an eye on the lineup sheets on Saturday afternoon.

Newcastle vs. Burnley Pick

I gave a good, hard look to the draw for this match. The low total and playing styles of these two teams sets up for a tight game, but in the end I can't overlook the value on Burnley on Saturday.

The Clarets finished last season with a -4.5 expected goals differential. Newcastle, on the other hand, finished 2019/20 with a -30.54 xGD. There may not be much between these teams in terms of on-paper talent, but I think Burnley are a better team and nothing I've seen this season has changed my mind there.

The Clarets' playing style and lack of starpower often cause them to get overlooked against stronger sides, but I think the same thing is happening for this matchup.

I'd bet Burnley down to +190.

The Bet: Burnley +190 or better

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