Tottenham at Sheffield United Odds, Pick
| Tottenham odds | -105 [BET NOW] |
| Sheffield United odds | +320 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +240 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-124/+104) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Thursday at 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Tottenham and Sheffield United are headed in opposite directions since the Premier League returned to action. Spurs aren't really a threat to take a Champions League spot, but they do need to keep winning if they want to clinch a spot in the Europa League next season.
Sheffield United looked like they were on their way to a surprising Europa League berth before the pandemic but the Blades are winless, with just one draw, in four matches since returning to action.
Neither side can afford to drop points if they want to play European Football in 2020-21.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Sheffield United
Sheffield United have been terrible during Project Restart. The Blades have been shutout in their last three Premier League matches, though they did score a goal in a 2-1 loss against Arsenal in the FA Cup.
Sheffield United boast the eighth-best home expected goal differential in the circuit and the Blades have taken 14 points from their last seven Premier League matches at Bramall Lane. The Blades looked like a different team during that run, generating 1.84 xG per match. That is a far cry from the team we've seen over the past few weeks.
If the Blades from before the break show up on Wednesday, this could be a terrific opportunity to buy low on a struggling team.
Tottenham
Spurs have only taken 15 points from their 15 matches on the road this season and their underlying numbers away from home are not pretty. Home-field advantage may be muted without a crowd, but it's still worth noting how poor Tottenham were playing on the road prior to the pause.
Spurs have only one win in their last six matches on the road and allowed an average of 2.02 xG per game in that span. What's even more alarming is five of those six matches came against teams in the bottom half of the table.
Some of Tottenham's critics will be quick to point to Harry Kane's lack of production as a big reason why Spurs have been mediocre this season. The Englishman is only averaging 0.44 expected goals per 90 minutes, compared to his of 0.60 and 0.78 averages over the previous two seasons.
Kane will need to pick up his level of play if Spurs are going to challenge Manchester United and Wolves for the final Europa League spot.
Analysis
Tottenham opened as a short favorite and their line has been steadily rising over the past few days behind 97% of the moneyline dollars per The Action Network App. My model thinks the line is moving in the wrong direction:
- Sheffield United projected odds: +136 (42.08% win probability)
- Tottenham projected odds: +216 (31.60%)
- Draw projected odds: +280 (26.32%)
- Sheffield United projected xG: 1.39
- Tottenham projected xG: 1.20
Based on those numbers, I think now is the time to buy low on Sheffield United. I am going to back the Blades to get at least a point at Bramall Lane.
